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 Welcome to Dow Theory Letters

A Leader and Innovator in Technical Stock Market Analysis

 for over 50 Years!

 

Founder Richard Russell's team of talented analysts work daily to bring you the best of primary trend analysis, investor education and intelligent investing advice.

 

How We Are Different

  • We believe in “market timing.” Our goal is to get you out at the top and in at the bottom of major, long-term market moves.
  • Daily edition. Dow Theory Letters is published daily, an hour after the market closes, at 2 pm, Pacific Standard Time. 
  • Value. We provide the analysis of our entire team to you for one low price.

 

What You Get

  • Daily market analysis from one of our outstanding columnists
  • "Richard's Wisdom" -- weekly column of selected past writings of Richard Russell, with commentary from the Dow Theory team relating them to market conditions today
  • The Primary Trend Index (PTI) our proprietary trend indicator
  • Market data section with everything you need to get a full picture of how the market is evolving

 

 


Quote of the Day

"Talent is cheaper than table salt. What separates the talented individual from the successful one is a lot of hard work." - Stephen King

Retail Apocalypse Is Upon Us

By Chuck Butler

 

Welcome to another edition of On the Butler Patio… This week, we’re going to discuss two things that are front and center in my mind.  

 

First, we’ll talk about the retail sector’s problems, and they’re not all caused by Amazon. Second, we’ll talk about China’s crowding out of the petrodollar. So grab a beverage of your choice, and let's get to the patio!

 

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Daily Recap

Following another day of rising stock prices in the US, Asian and European markets followed suit, focusing more on good earnings prospects and less on geopolitical risks.  The Asia Dow was up 0.63%, and the STOXX 600 rose 0.29%.  UK shares were relieved that the latest economic data doesn't support additional interest rate increases there, leading that index to zoom up by 1.26%.

 

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Seasonal Considerations

By Jon S. Strebler 

 

The seasonality of markets is something more often relevant to commodity traders. Back in the 1970s and ‘80s, I handled the trades for a program called Seasonal Opportunities in Spreads (SOS). The manager of the thing simultaneously bought one contract month of a particular commodity future, while selling another month of the same commodity, such as buying Dec Corn, selling July Corn. Sometimes the spreads involved trading two related commodities, such as buying Dec Silver, selling March Gold.

 

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What Happens When the Fed Closes the Term Spread?

By Matthew Kerkhoff

 

If you were to compile a list of the most effective recession predictors, the term spread, or difference between short and long-term interest rates, would likely be at the top of that list.

 

This is because the term spread (also known as the slope of the yield curve) has an uncanny ability to predict economic slowdowns. Over the past 60 years, every recession we’ve experienced has been preceded by an inverted yield curve. Not only that, a negative term spread has ALWAYS been followed by an economic slowdown – even if it did not result in an official recession.

 

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