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 Welcome to Dow Theory Letters

A Leader and Innovator in Technical Stock Market Analysis

 for over 50 Years!


Founder Richard Russell's team of talented analysts work daily to bring you the best of primary trend analysis, investor education and intelligent investing advice.


How We Are Different

  • We believe in “market timing.” Our goal is to get you out at the top and in at the bottom of major, long-term market moves.
  • Daily edition. Dow Theory Letters is published daily, an hour after the market closes, at 2 pm, Pacific Standard Time. 
  • Value. We provide the analysis of our entire team to you for one low price.


What You Get

  • Daily market analysis from one of our outstanding columnists
  • "Richard's Wisdom" -- weekly column of selected past writings of Richard Russell, with commentary from the Dow Theory team relating them to market conditions today
  • The Primary Trend Index (PTI) our proprietary trend indicator
  • Market data section with everything you need to get a full picture of how the market is evolving



Quote of the Day

"There are no traffic jams along the extra mile." - Roger Staubach

Seasonal Pattern in Treasuries?

By Matthew Kerkhoff


Most investors are familiar with the seasonal pattern in stocks, encapsulated by the old adage, “sell in May and go away.” But is there a similar pattern on the fixed income side of the equation? That’s what we’re going to take a look at today.


Back in 2015, three researchers, Mark Kamstra, Lisa Kramer, and Maurice Levi, wrote a research paper titled, “Seasonal Variation in Treasury Returns.” What they found is that the U.S. Treasury market exhibits an annual cycle in which average monthly returns vary over 80 basis points (0.8%) from peak to trough.



Richard's Thoughts: What's Happening Now

Richard's Comments


The Dow Theory is more than 100 years old.


In 1897, Charles H. Dow, founder of the Dow Jones News Service and The Wall Street Journal, devised the Dow Jones Industrial and Rail Averages. Dow was the first editor of The Wall Street Journal, and besides having access to large amounts of financial information, he possessed a keen and analytical mind.



Welcome To The Chaos Mr. Powell!

By Chuck Butler


Since we last met, the new Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, was sworn in, and takes over from Janet Yellen, who I would bet a dollar to a Krispy Kreme that she’s darn happy to get out of Dodge, before the gun slinging begins!


I saw this graph of the history of interest rates in the U.S. going back to the 1950’s and thought you might like to see it…



Daily Recap

Stocks started off lower in the US despite healthy gains overseas.  The Asia Dow was up 0.80% and the STOXX 600 gained 1.07%.  In the Americas, the volatile Brazilian market jumped 3.48%.

A strong inflation report for January sent US shares lower until investors decided NO - they didn’t mind a strong economy after all!  Bonds tanked, as yields rose to new highs for the year, but stocks rallied strongly.  The 10-year note’s yield vaulted up to 2.896%.


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