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Letter 1562

May 27, 2015


Industrial output has been down five months in a row. The last two times the US saw at least three straight months of declining industrial output, the economy was in recession, or about to be. Quietly, the Fed and the government must be scared to death with what’s happening. The idea of raising rates must be the furthest thing from the Fed’s mind at this time.


Additionally, with the collapse in oil and gas prices, American consumers saw their expenses going down. Seeing the extra money in the hands of consumers, the Fed clapped its hands. Then came the shocker. Consumers defied the Fed’s expectations. Instead of spending the extra money, as the Fed fervently hoped, consumers saved the money. Thus the collapse in energy and gas prices has yet to stimulate the US economy. With these setbacks in the economy, the odds of the Fed ... Log in or subscribe to continue reading.

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