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The Plot Thickens

By Matthew Kerkhoff


September marked the 60th consecutive month of job creation, but the pace of hiring downshifted, reflecting the weakness in mining and manufacturing sectors. On balance this points to a lower likelihood of a rate hike when the Fed meets later this month, but it’s unlikely to derail the thesis of higher rates moving forward.


The economy added a seasonally adjusted 142,000 jobs last month, below the longer term trend. Perhaps more telling, prior month’s figures for July and August were revised down by a combined 59,000 jobs. Each month’s initial release is an estimate; it’s encouraging when the figures are revised higher, not lower.


The chart below shows job creation by month. At the right side of the chart you can see the recent slowdown. For comparison, I’ve included 10 years’ worth of data so that you can see how job creation behaved during this expansion, and also heading into the ... Log in or subscribe to continue reading.

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