I mentioned in Friday's remarks that there are indications that the nonfarm payrolls report was understated.
You might be wondering how that could be. Don't they just count up how many new jobs were created during the month and then report that figure? Well ... no, that would be way too straightforward.
Instead, as with most government statistics, the numbers are tweaked by a group of analysts and statisticians to arrive at the final number. I've discussed some of the nebulous processes that take place in calculating items like the CPI (available in archives), and I think it's worth detailing what goes on with the monthly nonfarm payrolls report, especially since this is one of the few data releases that actually carries weight in the markets.
As you can imagine, hiring is very seasonal in nature. October is one of those particularly seasonal hiring periods. With school back in session, many teachers and related ... Log in or subscribe to continue reading.