How serious is the Ukraine situation and will it lead to out-right war? I'm depending on the stock market to provide me with the answer. The two important lows that I am watching are the Industrial low of 16,915 on July 10th, and the June Transport low of 7963. As long as one or both of these lows hold, the situation will remain constructive, if not bullish.
Note on the daily chart below that on the recent decline, the Industrials broke below the preceding July and June lows. The important thing about this decline is that the Transports halted their decline this side of their June lows at 7983, thus the Transports refused to confirm the weaker Industrial Average.
This non-confirmation triggered the rally back to just below the Industrial peak. Although the S&P Composite has risen to new record highs above 2000, the D-J Industrials have refused to advance to a ... Log in or subscribe to continue reading.