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Matt's Market Insights

Many folks are anxiously waiting to see whether 2nd quarter GDP will be revised downward. Recall that GDP contracted by 2.1% during the 1st quarter, and the initial reading on second quarter GDP came in at 4%. If 2nd quarter GDP falls to near 2%, growth for the first half of the year will be flat. And if 2nd quarter GDP is revised to show a contraction, it would meet the criteria generally deemed to identify a recession (two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction).

We're going to see the first revision tomorrow morning. Current expectations (for what they're worth ...) are for GDP to be revised downward, but only slightly to 3.9%. I'm not in the camp that believes we'll see a major drop in Q2 GDP, as I'll outline momentarily. But even if we do see a decline, unless it's a spectacular decline, the market is unlikely to notice. Markets ... Log in or subscribe to continue reading.

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