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Richard's Remarks


Goldman predicts -- Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman, predicts, for the first time since the financial crisis, the economy accelerating to above trend growth in the second half of next year. Then Goldman's commodity analyst, Damien Courvalin, is calling for the great gold bull market to end next year, based on the fact that real interest rates are finally going to start heading higher.


How seriously should we take these predictions? I don't take them seriously at all. First, they are predictions for next year. Nobody on God's green earth knows what next year will look like. If the forecasts are dead wrong, nobody will remember them. If they turn out to be correct, the analysts will trumpet them to high heaven and hope everybody remembers their forecasts.


Often I wonder what I will write about. At those times I fall back on Matthew 7:7 -- "Ask and it shall be ... Log in or subscribe to continue reading.

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