Today's site is really a continuation of yesterday's. I wanted a mechanical way to follow the secular (primary) bear market. This required a moving average that was insensitive to secondary reactions and also insensitive to cyclical (short-term) bull and bear markets. In other words, I needed a long-term moving average that would portray the primary trend while screening out most minor and secondary movements.
After much experimenting, I came up with a 233-week moving average. The chart below starts in the year 1983 and continues to the present. The 233-week moving average is the curved blue line. (233 is a Fibonacci number: 144 + 89 = 233.)
If we are now in a secular bear market, then the 233-week moving average should trend mildly southward. Towards the end of the bear market, the decline in the moving average should accelerate as it heads down.
Note on the way up, the 189-week MA trended inexorably ... Log in or subscribe to continue reading.
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