In reading over the weekend, two reports interested me particularly. InvesTech Research produced a remarkable summary of the markets. Their net conclusion is that none of their studies were outright bearish but the year 2014 is a year for a cautious outlook.
The second advisory that I found interesting was A. Gary Shilling’s Insights for January. Gary is brilliant. He states that the forces shaping the 2014 investment outlook include continued global deleveraging, the financial crisis and the Great Recession, all of which imply continuing slow US economic growth of about 2% annually. He sees further reduction in the Fed’s security purchases, slow inflation worldwide, deflation as a strong possibility, and further troubles out of Washington, including Obamacare. Gary states that deleveraging should take a total of about ten years. The deleveraging started in 2008, and thus Gary thinks it will require another four years to complete.
In the meantime, the Dow is ... Log in or subscribe to continue reading.
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