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Quote of the Day

Wednesday, May 02, 2012

May 2, 2012 -- "The greatest threat to our Constitution is our own ignorance of it."

--Jacob Roecker, author



A great strategic battle is developing in Europe. Europe is heading the austerity way. But this could lead to a collapse in the European economy. Subscribers remember Paul Krugman's advice: keep inflating and time will take care of the debts. Great, but Krugman is shifting all the problems off to our grandchildren. The real problem -- nobody wants to take the PAIN of a severe recession or depression, which is nature's way (a bear market) of solving the problem of over-leveraging and years of inflation and inflated prices. Russell opinion -- you can avoid the pain or put it off just so long -- but in the end the pain will come.


I am including below an up-to-date point & figure chart of my PTI. Here we see another bullish breakout, a breakout from a base that could send my PTI considerably higher.


Question -- What about buying the DIAs here?


Answer -- This is a tricky market and one that's hard on the nerves -- whether you're a bull or a bear. Based on the action of my PTI, I think savvy subscribers might buy a speculative position in the diamonds (DIAs) and ride the bull trend, which we hope will continue. As long as my PTI continues to hit new highs (it's at the high now), the bulls should be safe. A stern rule: never, after buying a stock or an ETF, allow your purchase to show a loss of more than 8%. If the loss runs to 8% or more, sell, and if you must, buy the item back again at a lower price. Of course, this is another way of stating the BIG RULE -- Never take the BIG LOSS. Remember, if you lose 50% you have to make 100% just to get your money back and break even. It's a lot easier to lose 50% than it is to make 100%..


Yesterday, the Dow was up 130 during the day, but at the close it lost half of its peak gains. I'm not saying that this kind of action doesn't bother me, but the fact is that a lot of stocks are making upward progress, and m,y PTI remains bullish.




There's a lot of froth in this market. The froth is due to the wild action of Google, Apple and Amazon. These three have given the market a "buy me now and get on the train" atmosphere. Watch these three stocks. If they fade as a group, the entire market will probably give ground.


The proof of the bull trend is seen on the chart below. This is the percentage of NYSE stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving average. The percentage is now 55.42%.







Below we see one of the broadest and most all-encompassing stock averages. This is the Wilshire 5000, containing almost all the actively traded US stocks in the NYSE, the Amex and the NASDAQ. Starting with July, 2009 we see a huge five-wave structure that counts 1-2-3-4-5. This presents a completed Elliott bull market unless number 5 is going to "extend." Extensions can move fast and be explosive. So it may be well worth playing the DIAs from here. However, if the action from here turns bearish, I would not hesitate to give my stocks back to Wall Street in a hurry. Watch the direction of my PTI. My personal opinion is that this market wants to go higher.


Study the two complex corrections, the first at April-July 2010 and the second at July-October 2011. Both of these were weird enough and complex enough to scare most people out of the market, but both corrections were followed by solid gains. Could we have a third such correction now? My PTI does not suggest another correction here.







Did you know that Obama and Romney both graduated from Harvard? Did you know that Romney has a huge house here on the beach in La Jolla? Beach goers in La Jolla occasionally see the Mitt and wife strolling along the beach. In La Jolla, beaches are all open to the public. There are no private beaches here, which is a policy that I love.




My PTI was down 2 at 6402. The moving average at 6374, so my PTI is bullish by 28.


The Dow was down 10.75 to 13268.57.


Transports were up 48.55 to 5334.52.


Utilities were down 2.95 to 470.01.


NASDAQ was up 9.41 to 3059.85.


S&P 500 was down 3.51 to 1402.31.


There were 1327 advances and 1696 declines on the NYSE.


There were 107 new highs and 27 new lows.


Total Volume on the NYSE and associated exchanges was 3.78 billion.


Bonds: Yield on the 10 year T-note was 1.930. Yield on the long T-bond was 3.117. Yield of the 91 day T-bill was 0.081%.


Dollar Index was up 0.27 at 79.14. Euro was down 0.68 at 131.64. Yen was up 0.08 at 124.80. Currency Prices as of 1 PM Pacific Time.

June gold was down 8.40 to 1654.00. July silver was down 0.285 to 30.645.


June light crude was down 0.94 to 105.22.


My Most Active Stocks Index was down 11 at 280.


The Big Money Breadth Index was down 2 at 1032.


GDX was down 0.78 at 45.66.


HUI was down 8.20 at 437.09.


CRB Commodity Index was down 3.87 at 304.08.


The VIX was up 0.28 at 16.88.


Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX) was up 0.08 to 48.69 (previous day closing). YTD Return: 5.64%.



Late Notes -- Pretty good close. The Dow struggled back up from a decent-sized loss to end down only 12 at the close -- with Transports up an encouraging 48 points.


June gold closed down 8.40 to 1654.00. The shorts of gold must be getting tired or disgusted.