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Quote of the Day

Thursday, March 15, 2012

March 15, 2012 -- "To speculate without being an insider is like buying cows in the moonlight." Daniel Drew.


Tidbits -- Several years ago my son, Ryan, told me that he loved Apple's designing of their products. Ryan begged me to buy him some of Apple's stock. Apple at the time was on the verge of bankruptcy, but under Ryan's insistence, I bought him 100 shares -- the price of Apple at the time was 22, which I thought was ridiculously overpriced for the stock. I called Ryan last night. "I see you've done well with your Apple." I said. Ryan replied wistfully, "I sold it when it hit 100." So, what did we both learn? Apple designed great products. If they could do it two years ago, they could probably still do it (which they are doing). If you've found a winner, stay with it. Patience is a virtue in this business. Instead of selling his Apple, Ryan should have sold just enough of his stock to cover his original investment, and held the rest. Ah well, investing is a learning process, and the lessons are all too often frustrating.



I've never been a fan of Facebook. Too much work involved. My granddaughter, Nina, was a huge fan of Facebook, and spent hours on it every day. But yesterday I asked Nina about Facebook. She told me that she had too much schoolwork, and had to delete her account. I wonder if this is going to be a problem for Facebook. If users starts dropping off, their stock will collapse. Faye signed me up for Facebook a year or two ago. I never got into it, because it took up too much time and I got little out of it. My conclusion -- I'm not a fan of Facebook, it's too easy to live without it.



I often wake up during the night and check the futures prices. As a rule, I don't think I get anything out of the futures prices -- with the exception of instances where there is a huge change in prices compared with the actual closing prices of the day before.


For instance, on Tuesday the Dow surged 200 points. Yesterday (Wednesday) the follow up was that the Dow closed up only a fraction of a point, which was disappointing. Then Wednesday night the Dow futures were down 16 points. Did that mean that the Dow would close down on Thursday? We'll see, I'm writing this part of the site Wednesday at 6 PM.



One strange feature of investing. You never learn it all. For instance, if you are an expert in platinum casting, you might have learned everything there is to be known about platinum casting. You may be the world's recognized expert on platinum casting. But I have never heard about or known anyone who is the world's expert on the stock market.


Which reminds me of one thing I've learned. If a very gifted trader has been wrong on the market for a long time, watch him -- he is very close to finally being right. If a very gifted trader has been right on the market for months on end, watch him -- he's very close to being dead wrong.





My PTI was up 3 at 6397. The moving average at 6355, so my PTI is bullish by 45.


The Dow was up 58.66 to 13252.76.


Transports were up 169.35 to 5349.74.


Utilities were down 0.23 to 454.66.


NASDAQ was up 15.64 to 3056.37.


S&P 500 was up 8.32 to 1402.60.


There were 1822 advances and 1227 declines on the NYSE.


There were 115 new highs and 13 new lows.

April light crude was down 0.32 to 105.11.


Total Volume on the NYSE and associated exchanges was 4.2 bn.


Bonds: Yield on the 10 year T-note was 2.28. Yield on the long T-bond was 3.41. Yield of the 91 day T-bill was 0.081%.


Dollar Index was down 0.36 at 80.20. Euro was up 0.74 at 130.97. Yen was up 0.45 at 119.92. Currency Prices as of 1 PM Pacific Time.

April gold was up 16.60 to 1659.50. May silver was up 0.54 to 32.72.


My Most Active Stocks Index was up 11 at 322.


The Big Money Breadth Index was unchanged at 1044.


GDX was up 0.02 at 50.14.


HUI was down 0.20 to 479.02.


CRB Commodity Index was up 0.73 at 315.90.


The VIX up 0.11 to 15.42.


Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX) was down 0.63 at 48.41 (previous day closing). YTD Return: 5.03%.


Late Notes -- I took a position in the Diamonds, and as I write near the close the Dow is up 50 points, which gives me a very small profit along with my subscribers -- at least those who also took a DIA position. Let's hope the Dow ascends from here. Hey, Transports are up as well.


As for April gold, it's up 16 dollars but still below 1700. Patience, patience, and maybe gold will go our way. So far, it's holding above 1600.