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Quote of the Day

Thursday, February 23, 2012


February 23, 2012 -- "The market always does what it's supposed to -- but never when." Old Wall Street proverb.


I'm going to start with a letter received from a veteran reader, Ron N. --


"Richard, the market looks pretty good, but we need the D-J Transports to exceed their Feb. 5 high to give a bull signal under Dow Theory. The July 1, 2011 DJT high is out of reach for now. I have some question in my mind about how important the July 1, 2011 high in the Transports still is in terms of Dow Theory. I wouldn't mind seeing a stronger up-day for the A-D line on forthcoming rallies. Of course, sometimes the A-D is up 2 to 1 on days when the Dow is flat." (Russell -- I agreed).


And this paragraph from, of all places, a Playboy interview with Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman.


"It really is catastrophic. If you include people who aren't actively searching for a job and people who are working part-time even though they want full-time work, we're up to about one in seven. That means the unemployment rate is 16 percent. I live in a fairly rarefied social class now and so I probably hear a lot fewer personal horror stories. But I do hear them: people my age, 58 year old guys who've lost jobs and see no chance of ever getting another one; young people out of college with good qualifications who can't find anything, who can't get their lives started. The human damage is enormous."




My PTI was up 6 at 6380. The moving average at 6342, so my PTI is bullish by 38.


The Dow was up 46.02 to 12984.69.


Transports were up 36.48 to 5161.65.


Utilities were down 1.59 to 450.75.


NASDAQ was up 23.81 to 2956.98.


S&P 500 was up 5.80 to 1363.46.


There were 2182 advances and 857 declines on the NYSE.


There were 145 new highs and 2 new lows.

April light crude was up 1.55 to 107.83.


Total Volume on the NYSE and associated exchanges was 3.7 bn.


Bonds: Yield on the 10 year T-note was 1.98. Yield on the long T-bond was 3.12. Yield of the 91 day T-bill was 0.085%.


Dollar Index was down 0.62 at 78.61. Euro was up 0.55 at 133. Yen was up 0.32 at 124.68. Currency Prices as of 1 PM Pacific Time.

April gold was up 15 to 1786.30. March silver was up 1.30 to 35.55.


My Most Active Stocks Index was up 5 at 294.


The Big Money Breadth Index was up 8 at 1014.


GDX was up 0.43 at 57.26.


HUI was up 3.47 to 549.25.


CRB Commodity Index was up 0.54 at 323.40.


The VIX was down 1.39 to 16.80.


Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX) was up 0.01 at 49.38 (previous day closing). YTD Return: 7.14%.


Late Notes: The Dow still refuses to close above 13,000. If the Dow can close above 13,000 it will be a bullish victory. By the same token, gold is reaching higher trying to close above 1,800. 13,000 Dow and 1,800 gold two very important targets and bullish if they arrive there.


Wait -- last minute fooler -- a very late sell-off took the Dow to below 13,000 at the close, so the Dow actually ended down for the day! Serves me right for jumping the gun.