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Quote of the Day

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

January 17, 2012 -- "Nothing is more frustrating to an individualist than to be mired in a modern, group-led, massive corporate organization." Humphrey Neill


The weekly chart of the Dow below shows the Dow and a 21-week moving average. Bullish or bearish? It's hard to tell. The latest action shows the Dow rallying above it 21-week MA, but still below both its May and its Augusts highs. To make matters more confusing, the negative spread between Lowry's Selling Pressure Index and their Buying Power Index stands at 190, close to the widest negative spread of the year.


All of which makes me think that the Averages are tracing out a massive and extended top. What will cause me to change my mind? I'll change my mind if or when the circumstances change. For example, I'd like to see both D-J Averages break up to new highs. And I'd like to see Lowry's Buying Power Index rise above their Selling Pressure Index. By the way, both Indices appear to have flattened out their paths-- Selling Pressure moving sideways but still well above the Buying Power Index, which too is now moving sideways.




Below we see a chart of gold. The most recent action is a small up-slanating head-and-shoulders pattern with the right shoulder rising above the 200-day moving average. Further bullish action would require the 50-day MA rising above the 200-day MA, and gold rallying above both. The 50-day MA stands at 1680.






My PTI was up 4 at 6353. The moving average at 6319, so my PTI is bullish by 34.


The Dow was up 60.01 to 12482.07.

 Transports were down 7.19 to 5168.73.


Utilities were up 0.79 to 451.69.


NASDAQ was up 17.41 to 2728.08.


S&P 500 was up 4.58 to 1293.67.


February crude was up 2.22 to 100.92.


Total Volume on the NYSE and associated exchanges was 3.88 bn.


There were 1859 advances and 1162 declines on the NYSE.


There were 140 new highs and 23 new lows.

The Big Money Breadth Index was up 6 at 976.


Bonds: Yield on the 10 year T-note was 1.86. Yield on the long T-bond was 2.90. Yield of the 91 day T-bill was 0.03%.


Dollar Index was down 0.38 at 81.12. Euro was up 0.50 at 127.22. Yen was up 0.21 at 130.25. Currency Prices as of 1 PM Pacific Time.

February gold was up 24.80 to 1655.60. February silver was up 0.61 to 30.13.


My Most Active Stocks Index was down 5 at 245.


GDX was down 0.87 at 53.18.


HUI was down 7.87 to 511.51.


CRB Commodity Index was up 3.13 at 310.83.


The VIX was up 1.29 to 22.20.

Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX) was down 0.25 at 47.07 (previous day closing). YTD Return: 2.13%.



Late Notes-- Very light and disappointing volume on the upside over the last week. Today the distribution became apparent with the Dow selling off from a high of over 100 to the closing price of 50. Selling pressure is still well above Buying Power and it's a dangerous market.




Over the last three years I have had a stroke, I had a catheter inserted in my bladder, I had an appendectomy, and I broke my hip. I've been semi-immobile for about three months which gave me a lot of time to think. What did I discover with all this free time to think? I found, I discovered GOD. Up to now I never really thought about God. I guess you might have called me a lazy, non-thinking agnostic. So why, I thought, am I still alive with sound mind? The answer that I came up with -- God has his reasons.