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Quote of the Day

Thursday, January 12, 2012

January 12, 2012 -- According to my studies, the US will be in a recession when the next presidential voting comes around. And if I am correct, that will mean no more Obama, and an almost certain Mitt.


Mitt and I are neighbors. The Mitt has a big house just north of here in La Jolla. Walking up the beach I've often trotted across Mitt's lawn facing the beach. In San Diego you can't own beach property, so if your lawn is next to the beach, you've got to put up with strangers walking along your property, Sorry Mitt, but you knew that when you bought the place.


Are we riding slowly up the down-escalator -- or are we riding slowly down the up-escalator?


Just a few minutes ago I listened to PIMCO's Bill Gross on Bloomberg TV. Bill (softening his bearishness) talked about a world that was OVERLEVERAGED. Therefore, what's happening is that the markets are now working off the over-leverage, and that's deflationary. Against current deflation, which the central banks will definitely not tolerate, we have the central banks printing and printing (also to cheapen their currencies and help their exports).


So it's a deflationary-inflationary world that we're dealing with, and like you and I, the markets are very CONFUSED. Which is why we're seeing the strange, timid, mindless action in the stock market. Nobody is ready to take a big stand. Big money is on the sidelines.


Lowry's figures are improving very slightly, showing that the market has a slightly better tone, but the big money, wisely, is staying on the sidelines. The world economy is a weighing scale with one-pound weights on opposite sides of the scale. Advancing volume over declining on the NYSE was only 20 to 15.


My favored position -- gold and cash, but mostly gold. For cash, the choice is the US dollar -- for now.


Gold now creeping up, probably because of Chinese and Indian central bank buying. As a long-term store of wealth -- buy GOLD.




My PTI was up 4 at 6355. The moving average at 6318, so my PTI is bullish by 37.


The Dow was up 21.57 to 12471.02.

 Transports were up 13.18 to 5209.36.


Utilities were down 0.04 to 451.54.


NASDAQ was up 13.94 to 2724.70.


S&P 500 was up 3.02 to 1295.50.


February crude was down 1.88 to 98.99.


Total Volume on the NYSE and associated exchanges was 3.9 bn.


There were 1855 advances and 1173 declines on the NYSE.


There were 105 new highs and 15 new lows.

The Big Money Breadth Index was up 2 at 971.


Bonds: Yield on the 10 year T-note was 1.90. Yield on the long T-bond was 2.96. Yield of the 91 day T-bill was 0.02%.


Dollar Index was down 0.57 at 80.78. Euro was up 1.32 at 128.32. Yen was up 0.17 at 130.37. Currency Prices as of 1 PM Pacific Time.

February gold was up 8.10 to 1647.70. February silver was up 0.23 to 30.12.


My Most Active Stocks Index was up 7 at 258.


GDX was up 0.41 at 54.72.


HUI was up 4.71 to 526.74.


CRB Commodity Index was down 3.75 at 309.86.


The VIX was down 0.56 to 20.49.

Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX) was up 0.12 at 47.21 (previous day closing). YTD Return: 2.43%.