Click Here to Subscribe Now! Try a 3-month trial for only $68

Strebler's Perspective

October, 2017 Archives

Third Phase Excesses

by Jon S. Strebler

 

According to the Wall Street Journal’s data compilers, last Friday the NASDAQ set its “61st record close in 2017, matching its record set during the dot-com bubble in 1999.”  Also on Friday, the NASDAQ outperformed the senior Dow Jones Industrial Average by the widest daily margin in 15 years (+2.2% vs. + 0.14%).  We’ve seen the Industrials soar day after day, handily beating out both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, with the NASDAQ the weakest of the three since early September.  But Friday the tech-heavy index snapped back to life with surprisingly good earnings coming out of some of the biggest names on Wall Street.

PREMIUM - CLICK TO READ MORE

Records Abound

by Jon S. Strebler

 

The fact that 2017 is an unusual year of astounding records in the stock market probably doesn't surprise many people - least of all, our readers. Last Friday, for example, was the 24th day that the three major indices we watch for US stock performance - the Dow Industrials, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ - all made new record highs this year. Our suggestion (not ours alone, of course) that we may be in the early stages of a "melt up," typical of the third psychological stage of a true bull market, seems more and more likely as each day of market performance passes

PREMIUM - CLICK TO READ MORE

Global Economic Uptrend

by Jon S. Strebler 

 

One analyst made the claim last week that we are currently experiencing “the first synchronized global economic uptrend ever". Now, you may have heard that “ever” is a really long time, and as a naturally curious person, I therefore have to wonder if this claim is correct. Unfortunately, there are practical limits to tracing back the history of economic growth worldwide. For example, I’m not going to try to look at how Babylon’s economy meshed with pre-Incan prosperity, the Myceanean age, the Kush kingdom, the Shang dynasty, or standards of living during India’s Vedic period.  

PREMIUM - CLICK TO READ MORE

Melt-Up?

by Jon S. Strebler 

 

“A market that repeatedly refuses to go down wants to go much higher.” – Anonymous

 

I can’t find the exact quote, but there is an old stock market adage something like that.  And whatever the exact wording, it reminds me of the US stock market over the last 11 months, or even longer.  In these columns, we have documented the many ways that stocks are overvalued and overdue for a correction; we have identified the many risks and calamities that normally might have made stock prices tumble; we have cautioned readers, as is our fiduciary responsibility, to therefore not be too heavily invested in a market that could reasonably falter in a big way at any time.  And yet prices refuse to go down by any appreciable amount.   

PREMIUM - CLICK TO READ MORE

Whipsaws

by Jon S. Strebler

Last week's DTL writings featured some interesting thoughts on technical analysis, which is a robust basis for our thoughts and recommendations about various markets. As mentioned from time to time, technical analysis, or reading the charts in order to determine trends and predict trend changes, works on the principle of probabilities. We know that historically, certain chart patterns provide profitable investment opportunities X percentage of the time, be it 55%, 70%, 85%, or whatever. The idea is to buy and sell in accordance with those patterns and probabilities, knowing that they won't always work out as advertised. Ideally, we identify rather quickly when things aren't working our way, and get out with a relatively small loss, counting on the winners to more than compensate for those losses

PREMIUM - CLICK TO READ MORE