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Richard's Wisdom

Latest Articles

Richard's Thoughts: A Bubble is a Bubble, & Sooner or Later Every Bubble Bursts

Richard's Comments

 

Yesterday, I wrote about the giant credit bubble that we have all "enjoyed" since the end of World War II, and especially since the 2008 financial crisis.

 

I can't get the credit bubble out of my mind. I see it everywhere, on store signs, in bank windows, on TV, in flyers on windshields. It's ubiquitous and drilled into the conscious and unconscious minds of almost everyone on earth.

 

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Richard's Thoughts on Third Phases

Richard's Comments

 

I've never seen a great bull market that didn't end with a third speculative phase. Every major primary bull market that I have studied or lived through ends up with a wildly speculative third phase. This is the phase where the public and the crowd rush headlong into the market.

 

Here we see the wholesale entrance of the public, accompanied by news and endless hype by the Wall Street "experts." People who wouldn't touch the item during the first and second phases, are now enthusiastic buyers.

 

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Richard’s Thoughts on Being a Champion Worrier

Richard’s Comments

 

The other night at a Chinese restaurant, I ran into an old friend. He asked me, "Russell, I read your site just about every day, and I have a question; how do you know what to write about each day?"

 

I told him, "Easy, I write about what I'm worried about."

 

My friend answered, "Does that give you enough to write about each and every day?"

 

I responded, "Are you kidding? I write about roughly 10% of the items I worry about. You see, I'm a champion worrier. I worry about stuff even before it really becomes worrisome."

 

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Richard's Thoughts on Bull Markets and Corrections

Richard's Comments

 

The single most difficult concept to get across to investors (and I say this after many years of writing about it) is the concept of the great primary trend of the market.

 

A primary trend, bull or bear, once set in motion, does not reverse until it is EXHAUSTED. A bull market such as this one, for example, will not top out until the bull forces have totally spent themselves. Thus, a bull market will not die on bad news, economic recessions, corporate disasters or political threats.

 

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Richard’s Thoughts: Lessons from the Past

Richard’s Comments

 

The following was written on January 16, 2004

 

Investing today is just plain different and difficult. Today, it's a global world, and billions of dollars are being invested by managers using "other people's money."  

 

Investing to me has always been a matter of buying great values at a time when most people won't touch these same values.

 

Which, of course, brings up the question, "Are there any great values today, and if so -- where the heck are they?"

 

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Richard's Thoughts On Optimism

Richard's Comments

 

It's human nature to be optimistic. It's human nature to hope. Furthermore, hope is a component of a healthy state of mind.

 

Hope is the opposite of negativity. Negativity in life can lead to anger, disappointment and depression. After all, if the world is a negative place, what's the point of living in it? To be negative is to be anti-life.

 

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