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Strebler's Perspective

Latest Articles

Deflation Ahead?

by Jon S. Strebler

 

Richard Russell often pondered and wrote about the battle between the forces of inflation and those of deflation. Deflation, he averred, would be deadly for world economies so mired in and dependent upon debt. Governments would therefore do anything possible to avoid slipping into a deflationary situation, including the oft-cited “dropping money from helicopters.”

 

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Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?

by Jon S. Strebler 

 

That is the old rule, anyway. The reason US stocks have rallied higher ever since Donald Trump was elected President may not be because of his flawless character. More likely, Wall Street has willingly overlooked his shortcomings, in exchange for massive deregulation and big tax breaks for businesses and the wealthy. Trump has promptly and extensively delivered on deregulation, since much of that could be accomplished simply by executive actions that don’t require legislative changes. It has been the tax breaks that were always in question, given Congress’s difficulty in reaching consensus. 

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Crude Oil Revives?

by Jon S. Strebler

 

For the first time in two years, crude oil prices are mounting an attack on the $60/bbl. level.  Improving economies the world ‘round are boosting demand for all types of fuels, with oil being the primary source of many of the more commonly used fuels.  A monthly chart of the Global Dow index ($GDOW) reflects the strength of world stock markets, which are generally a pretty good reflection of global economic conditions. 

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Daily Recap

With US markets closing early so people can recoup from getting up at 4:00 AM to gather up even more material goods, trading was on the light side.  Still, stocks managed to revert to their old bullish ways, gaining back most of what they lost yesterday.  As is often the case, NY moved forward after mostly strong trading in overseas markets.  The Asia Dow rose 0.22%, with Australia a notable exception to the higher prices.  In Europe, UK equities were down slightly, but all other major exchanges closed higher.  The odd result: STOXX 600 down 0.13%, but the Europe Dow up 0.81%.

 

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Keeping it Simple

by Jon S. Strebler

 

There’s a lot to be said in favor of the old KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid!) adage, even as that gets harder and harder to do. It seems like no matter what field one considers, the amount of knowledge keeps increasing much faster than our ability (or desire?) to keep up. I looked up the latest on this idea, and here’s the story:

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Contrary Opinion

by Jon S. Strebler

 

Contrary opinion, in short, is looking for times and places where almost everyone is doing the same thing, and then choosing to do the opposite. The concept gets mixed reviews in the world of investing. On the one hand, we’re supposed to follow the trend, which pretty much equates to going with the majority. We are assured over and over again that this is the true way to big profits. Yet we are warned to watch out when everyone is saying the same thing; “If it’s obvious to everyone, it’s obviously wrong” was the old investing adage I learned long ago, and one way contrary opinion could be expressed. 

 

 

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