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Strebler's Perspective

Latest Articles

Turning the Corner

by Jon S. Strebler 

 

The stock market has turned the corner after three months of correction that started in late-January. Or so an eye-catching headline on MarketWatch suggested over the weekend. Their reporter Anora Guadiano thinks that the market has been digesting fears about inflation, trade wars, rate hikes and “other geopolitical issues” since late-January, and now all of those concerns are priced into current share values. This chart amply illustrates the market’s “turned corner”, if indeed that is what has happened.

 

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My State's Better Than Your Country

by Jon S. Strebler

 

Dow Theory Letters’ founder and patriarch, Richard Russell, moved to California in the early 1960s for the same reasons everybody else did and still does. As much out of jealously as anything else, many in this nation love to bad-mouth the state that is the most populated, most productive, most blessed by nature (mountains, deserts, 840 miles of beaches, and oh yeah – Yosemite) and most creative state, though with props on that last one to our northern neighbor, Washington. 

 

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Market Threats

by Jon S. Strebler

 

Markets have been fixated on several key themes in the last couple of months. There’s the Syrian war, the Iran agreement on nukes, multiple concerns in Korea, economic growth and inflation, and higher interest rates. Then there’s the prospect of trade wars breaking out, something that bounces back and forth between seeming inevitable and seeming unlikely.

 

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Commodities Perk Up

by Jon S. Strebler

 

We watch the US dollar closely here at Dow Theory Letters. It’s how we get paid, how we pay our bills, and the form of payment we use when investing. It also impacts all of the markets that are of interest to us, along with the inflation rates that affect our purchasing power. Of particular interest to us is the dollar’s influence on gold prices. Courtesy of http://www.macrotrends.net, we see below the essentially inverse relationship between the price of gold (oddly, in blue) and the dollar value (in gold). 

 

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Seasonal Considerations

By Jon S. Strebler 

 

The seasonality of markets is something more often relevant to commodity traders. Back in the 1970s and ‘80s, I handled the trades for a program called Seasonal Opportunities in Spreads (SOS). The manager of the thing simultaneously bought one contract month of a particular commodity future, while selling another month of the same commodity, such as buying Dec Corn, selling July Corn. Sometimes the spreads involved trading two related commodities, such as buying Dec Silver, selling March Gold.

 

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Happy Anniversary

by Jon S. Strebler

 

It was twenty years ago today, Sgt. Pepper taught the band to play…”  No – wait; excuse the flashback.  Actually, this month we’re celebrating (?) the five year anniversary of gold ending its long bull market.  From essentially a double-bottom around $255 in 1999 and 2001, gold soared for many years, topping out at $1923 in 2011.  From there, prices moved sideways for almost two full years.  And then, in April of 2013, gold broke below huge support around $1540, its monthly MAs turned negative and, well – the party was over.

 

 

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