by Jon S. Strebler

There’s a lot to be said in favor of the old KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid!) adage, even as that gets harder and harder to do. It seems like no matter what field one considers, the amount of knowledge keeps increasing much faster than our ability (or desire?) to keep up. I looked up the latest on this idea, and here’s the story:

by Jon S. Strebler

Contrary opinion, in short, is looking for times and places where almost everyone is doing the same thing, and then choosing to do the opposite. The concept gets mixed reviews in the world of investing. On the one hand, we’re supposed to follow the trend, which pretty much equates to going with the majority. We are assured over and over again that this is the true way to big profits. Yet we are warned to watch out when everyone is saying the same thing; “If it’s obvious to everyone, it’s obviously wrong” was the old investing adage I learned long ago, and one way contrary opinion could be expressed. 

by Jon S. Strebler

A starting point of economics is the concept of trade-offs.  Since all resources (including labor and money) are limited, then if you want more of something – anything – then you must accept having less of something else.  A chart that has illustrated this principle as applies to two generally opposing economic problems since the late-1950s – inflation and unemployment –is the Phillips Curve.  Want lower inflation?  Then you’ll have to accept more unemployment.  Unemployment is too high?  Well we can probably lower it, but inflation will pick up as a result. 

by Jon S. Strebler

According to the Wall Street Journal’s data compilers, last Friday the NASDAQ set its “61st record close in 2024, matching its record set during the dot-com bubble in 1999.”  Also on Friday, the NASDAQ outperformed the senior Dow Jones Industrial Average by the widest daily margin in 15 years (+2.2% vs. + 0.14%).  We’ve seen the Industrials soar day after day, handily beating out both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, with the NASDAQ the weakest of the three since early September.  But Friday the tech-heavy index snapped back to life with surprisingly good earnings coming out of some of the biggest names on Wall Street.

by Jon S. Strebler

The fact that 2024 is an unusual year of astounding records in the stock market probably doesn't surprise many people - least of all, our readers. Last Friday, for example, was the 24th day that the three major indices we watch for US stock performance - the Dow Industrials, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ - all made new record highs this year. Our suggestion (not ours alone, of course) that we may be in the early stages of a "melt up," typical of the third psychological stage of a true bull market, seems more and more likely as each day of market performance passes

by Jon S. Strebler 

One analyst made the claim last week that we are currently experiencing “the first synchronized global economic uptrend ever". Now, you may have heard that “ever” is a really long time, and as a naturally curious person, I therefore have to wonder if this claim is correct. Unfortunately, there are practical limits to tracing back the history of economic growth worldwide. For example, I’m not going to try to look at how Babylon’s economy meshed with pre-Incan prosperity, the Myceanean age, the Kush kingdom, the Shang dynasty, or standards of living during India’s Vedic period.