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Critical Month in Election Year Cycle

 

By Richard Russell

 

The presidential election cycle is four years long, and the third year, which we are currently in, is usually the strongest year. On average, the return on year one of the presidential election cycle is 5.8%, for year two the return is 4.2%, for the third year it has been 12.8%, and for year four, which will be next year, the average return is 7.5%.

 

In the third year of the cycle, the month of April has proven, in years past, to be a significant month. When the month of April has seen the Dow make a new year-to-date high, that has been especially auspicious for the cycle. The record Dow high was set last month at 18,288. If, during the rest of the month of April, the Dow betters that number, it will be a very bullish indication for the market in general.

 

As I write before the close, the ... Log in or subscribe to continue reading.


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