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Economic Uncertainty Driving Corporate Buybacks?

By Matthew Kerkhoff

 

I think few people would argue with the observation that bull market tops are often accompanied by excessive enthusiasm, euphoria, and a late rush by retail investors to own stocks. The final phase of bull markets has been characterized as the blow-off or speculative phase, as stocks rise on hopes and expectations. Those who have missed the party finally capitulate, joining in at the wrong time in hopes that the music will play on.

 

It we were to assume (which could be a big mistake) that this scenario of retail investors boldly moving in during the final act will play out again, it would likely indicate that we are not yet at the end of this six-year bull market. But perhaps the retail investors are not who we should be watching.

 

The chart below from Haver Analytics and Citi Research caught my attention, as it demonstrates a vast distinction in who ... Log in or subscribe to continue reading.


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