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China is the Real Potential Black Swan

 

By Richard Russell

 

As usual in bear markets, people are looking at the wrong thing. I don’t think the Greek situation will bring on trouble. The market doesn’t wait for trouble, it looks ahead – it discounts. So far, the stock market is snoozing through the Greek situation. I’m tired of hearing about Greece. Will it? Won’t it? Maybe? From the market’s standpoint, Greece is a non-event. My thinking is that Greece will exit the euro and the Eurozone. The stock market obviously knows of this possibility, and it is surely discounted already. 

 

I suspect the real trouble will come from China. Chinese stocks are in a bear market (is it a Black Swan?). They’re down over 20%. The government is obviously worried about the falling Chinese market, and is preparing for a huge injection of liquidity. I’m much afraid that the primary trend of the Chinese stock market is bearish. I’m also afraid ... Log in or subscribe to continue reading.


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