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The International Investor

By Benjamin J. Butler

 

Will the climb up the wall of worry – to which we referred last time – finish soon? It truly is a fascinating time to be observing financial markets.

 

As we go into the last quarter of the year, will we see a Fed miscommunication? Rate expectations have been firmly anchored for awhile but we are entering a phase where we will be even more data dependent, and this might raise volatility and risk premia. As we have been noting for some time, bonds are already at lofty levels, or in the words of Julian Robertson, the founder of Tiger Management, “Bonds are at ridiculous levels.” Any surprise from the Fed, then, could reverberate quite strongly throughout fixed income land and then equities.

 

The Russell 2000 small cap index doesn’t look healthy again:

 

 

Furthermore, the other worrying trend is the US dollar strength, and weakness in the ... Log in or subscribe to continue reading.


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