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Matt's Market Insights

 

Lately Richard has been talking more about gold's seasonality so I though we would show a few charts to highlight this trend. The first chart below looks at gold performance by month over a three decade period up to 2011. As you can see, the front half of the year is typically modest in terms of overall gains. February is historically the worst performing month and it is not until July that performance becomes consistently positive.

 

 

This next chart also looks at seasonality but does so across gold's major bull market from 2000 to 2011. We see general similarities in that August, September, and November are the best performing months, but we can also see that the front half the year is not nearly as bad, performance-wise, as the chart above. It makes sense that we would see better performance in the off-months during a strong bull market.

 

 

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