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Quote of the Day

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

March 28, 2012 -- "There was a time when a fool and his money were soon parted,

But now it happens to everybody." Adlai Stevenson.

 

The market "fooled around" all session and the Dow (surprise) finally ended the session down 43 points. As I mentioned March 22, I cleaned out my position of DIAs. My reason -- I need sleep more than I need speculative profits. So I went go bed with zero stocks, and I snooze soundly. I have no secret suspicions or intuitions about this market, but the fact is that it's just too sloppy and weird for me. True, the Dow looks OK, but the Transports are lagging, and now we have a non-confirmation. I'm just not willing to play ball with this market, and when I'm not feeling comfortable with my position, I do what I usually do when I find myself muttering nothings just before bedtime, I pick up the phone and give Wall Street back its products. And I'm not sorry.

 

That's the marvelous thing about the stock market: if you don't like your position, you can change it in the minute or two that it takes to call your broker. That's how the stock market differs from the real estate or the trucking business -- you can make a move, big or small, and take that move back (or add to it) in the space of a minute.

 

As for gold, I have a long-term position in the yellow metal that I will probably never exit or sell. My thinking is that sooner or later we will be subject to a major correction (bear market) that will wipe out or correct 60 years of inflation and leveraging. When that happens, I want to own the only kind of money that the Fed can't destroy.

 

When the big deflation and deleveraging arrives, I see the Fed trying to halt it with QE3 and QE4 and QE5. Why do I say that? Because that's the way the Fed thinks, and that's what the Fed does. They did it in 2007 and 2008, and we know that the current Fed head will not tolerate contraction, and has a record to prove it.

 

It's just past midnight. I just turned my computer on, and I see that the S&P futures are up. Fine, let the market mavens bet on a higher market tomorrow; the market's going to rise without Richard Russell. It's bedtime as I write, and I know I'll get a good snooze with my new zero position.

 

TODAY'S MARKET ACTION:

 

My PTI was down 7 at 6391. The moving average at 6363, so my PTI is bullish by 28.

 

The Dow was down 71.52 to 13126.21.

 

Transports were down 18.18 to 5258.13.

 

Utilities were down 4.05 to 454.18.

 

NASDAQ was down 15.39 to 3104.96.

 

S&P 500 was down 6.98 to 1405.54.

 

There were 1143 advances and 1908 declines on the NYSE.

 

There were 66 new highs and 26 new lows.

May light crude was up 0.30 to 107.33.

 

Total Volume on the NYSE and associated exchanges was 3.8 billion.

 

Bonds: Yield on the 10 year T-note was 2.207. Yield on the long T-bond was 3.311. Yield of the 91 day T-bill was 0.076%.

 

Dollar Index was up 0.11 at 79.16. Euro was down 0.13 at 133.28. Yen was up 0.43 at 120.89. Currency Prices as of 1 PM Pacific Time.

April gold was down 27.00 to 1657.90. May silver was down 0.78 to 31.83.

 

My Most Active Stocks Index was down 1 at 317.

 

The Big Money Breadth Index was unchanged at 1040.

 

GDX was down 0.98 at 48.92.

 

HUI was down 8.65 to 466.68.

 

CRB Commodity Index was down 3.96 at 311.47.

 

The VIX up 0.12 to 15.47.

 

Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX) was down 0.06 to 48.92 (previous day closing). YTD Return: 6.14%.

 

Late Notes -- As I write, the Dow is down 90 points and is perched just above the 13,000 level. I would take a closing below Dow 13,000 as a bad omen, with 12,000 the next Dow target. Time for caution in an erratic market. I note that the majority of talking heads on Bloomberg are becoming progressively more optimistic. Very few talk about the market; it's easier to wax poetic about housing and car sales and improving unemployment. Remember, the stock market is "looking" six to nine months ahead. Ah, the wisdom of the majority.