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Quote of the Day

Thursday, March 22, 2012

March 22, 2012 -- Here I am, a the tender age of 87. How did I ever get here? And one of my problems is that I don't know many people my age to talk to (except my sister and my first wife). Going -- My old pal Harry Schultz has quit the business. And one of my favorites, the brilliant Fred Hickey of the High Tech Strategist, has dropped out of the business from sheer exhaustion (I don't blame him), which leaves me, Granville and Dines as the remaining godfathers of the investment advisory biz. Thumbs up guys, and keep at it.

 

I just saw the headlines, Tebow and Lin into the big bucks. Big bucks doesn't mean what it used to mean when I was a youngster. Today anything in thousands is chump change. To talk about real money, today you have to be talking about millions, and on the corporate level you have to be referring to billions. On the government level you have to be referring to trillions -- to tell the truth, most people can't even describe what a trillion is.

 

The fact is that the Fed is happy with 2% inflation each and every year. Compound 2% inflation year after year, and you know what's happening? -- you've effectively wiped out the middle class. Between inflation, stagnant wages, higher taxes, and no jobs, the middle class has hit the brick wall like a fresh egg hitting the trunk of a redwood tree. Whoosh!

 

The Dow appears to waffle around during the length of each trading day and then at the close the Dow is down 10 to 50 points. What is this? Reverse inflation? Or is the Dow trying to tell us something? Honest, I don't know what!

 

Personally, I don't care for the action, but my PTI still says "bullish." Most of us are so tired of hearing about Greece that we wish the country would just sink into the Mediterranean and take Portugal and Spain with it.

 

"Why are you fearful, oh ye of little faith?" asked Jesus. And the answer is that I've been fearful all my life. It's probably a result or a reaction from growing up during the Great Depression and having my wits scared out of me during my stint in WW II. Today's young'uns are fearful because they can't find jobs. Stop worrying, guys and gals, believe me it could be worse.

 

Big boys selling? I just checked the distribution days registered during the last two weeks: 5 on the NYSE Composite; 3 on the S&P 500; 2 on the NASDAQ. That's a lot -- more than I like to see.

 

Creepy Note -- Sturm Ruger & Co., which makes great pistols and rifles, received orders for a phenomenal one million units during the first quarter. Something to think about. A sign of the times? I hope not.

 

 

TODAY'S MARKET ACTION:

 

My PTI was down 4 at 6393. The moving average at 6359, so my PTI is bullish by 34.

 

The Dow was down 78.48 to 13046.14.

 

Transports were down 111.00 to 5220.81.

 

Utilities were up 0.16 to 452.79.

 

NASDAQ was down 12.00 to 3063.32.

 

S&P 500 was down 10.11 to 1392.78.

 

There were 786 advances and 2231 declines on the NYSE.

 

There were 42 new highs and 22 new lows.

May light crude was down 1.92 to 105.35.

 

Total Volume on the NYSE and associated exchanges was 3.6 bn.

 

Bonds: Yield on the 10 year T-note was 2.29. Yield on the long T-bond was 3.36. Yield of the 91 day T-bill was 0.081%.

 

Dollar Index was up 0.04 at 79.70. Euro was down 0.22 at 131.88. Yen was up 1.29 at 121.19. Currency Prices as of 1 PM Pacific Time.

April gold was down 7.80 to 1642.50. May silver was down 0.88 to 31.34.

 

My Most Active Stocks Index was down 15 at 313.

 

The Big Money Breadth Index was down 4 at 1036.

 

GDX was down 1.01 at 48.75.

 

HUI was down 9.41 to 465.33.

 

CRB Commodity Index was down 3.71 at 312.27.

 

The VIX up 0.44 to 15.57.

 

Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX) was unchanged at 48.64 (previous day closing). YTD Return: 5.53%.

 

Late Notes-- Russell turns chicken -- The retail public usually buys stocks during the opening hours of the session. The pros and the institutions usually do their trading during the waning hours of the session. With today's market action I took a small profit and sold out my DIAs, yes against the dictates of my PTI. I just didn't feel that the risk-to-reward was worth sitting with stocks at this juncture. I'm waiting to see the days when the market firms up near the close, which is the opposite of what it's been doing. I don't like markets that tend to sell off during the last two hours of trading. I'm now satisfied to be on the sidelines with zero common stocks. I'll just watch the action for a while. My inclination and feeling -- neutral, very neutral. But no sell signal yet from my PTI.

 

Gad I was wrong about my age. I thought I'd be 87 in July, but it turns out I'll be 88. What can you make of a guy who doesn't know his own age (or have I fallen prisoner to my own wishes?) Hey I really wish I was 35!

 

Why do I stay in this Business? I want to see what happens.

 

Thought -- If my PTI turns bearish, I think Obama will be an ex-prez.