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Quote of the Day

Friday, March 09, 2012

March 9, 2012 -- I wake up. It's 5:30 in the morning, Pacific time. Which means it's 8:30 in NYC. The big TV screen at the foot of my bed is set on Bloomberg, and the news is flashing by. No change in unemployment which is now at 8.3%. The announcer takes that as good news and everybody (mostly attractive women) is smiling. "Greece pushes bondholders into record debt swaps." Trade deficit in US widens - Keith Olbermann special comment on Michael Bloomberg.

 

The news and comments flash across the screen almost faster than I can read them. The financial world is waking up (does it ever sleep?) as I sit up in bed. Then I remember my broken hip, and I have to be careful not to bend it beyond 90 degrees.

 

Now the market is open, and I see that the Dow is up 29 points to 12935.00 but not yet able to rise above 13000. April gold is down 12.90 to 1685.30. Well below 1700.

 

I take a sip of water and slide carefully out of bed. I stand gingerly (all movements must be gingerly when recovering from a busted hip) and I walk unsteadily to get my wool jacket (it's crispy cold in the house).

 

Every once in a while I stop and ask myself, do I, personally and emotionally, want the market to be bullish or bearish? What do the two possibilities mean to me?

 

The answer is that I want the market to be bullish. Why? Because I may want to sell the house that I'm living in and a bullish atmosphere would help in that cause. Also, if we can manage to stay out of a war with Iran, that would be bullish. And my son, Ryan, is 34 years old, and it would be wonderful if he could spend his life never having gone to war (maybe the next war would be nuclear, and foot soldiers would not be a factor -- lovely thought).

 

Back to the market. As I write the Dow is up 36 and still below 13,000. This is one strange market. How many days does the Dow have to exist below 13000 before we can say it can't make it, and it "wants to go down?"

 

As for gold, it's once again above 1700, and here we ask, how long does gold have to hold above 1700 before it takes the next step and climbs to 1800?

 

These are stubborn, low volume markets, set to move either way. With Iran and the presidential election key questions, the markets are simply as mystified as we are regarding the big questions. The markets always do what they are supposed to -- but never when. In this case we don't even know what the markets are supposed to do!

 

 

TODAY'S MARKET ACTION:

 

My PTI was up 6 at 6391. The moving average at 6351, so my PTI is bullish by 50.

 

The Dow was up 14.08 to 12922.02.

 

Transports were up 15.99 to 5161.93.

 

Utilities were up 1.75 to 454.95.

 

NASDAQ was up 17.92 to 2988.34.

 

S&P 500 was up 4.96 to 1370.87.

 

There were 2108 advances and 903 declines on the NYSE.

 

There were 162 new highs and 5 new lows.

April light crude was up 0.82 to 107.40.

 

Total Volume on the NYSE and associated exchanges was 3.5 bn.

 

Bonds: Yield on the 10 year T-note was 2.03. Yield on the long T-bond was 3.18. Yield of the 91 day T-bill was 0.086%.

 

Dollar Index was up 0.80 at 79.94. Euro was down 1.66 at 131.07. Yen was down 1.37 at 121.15. Currency Prices as of 1 PM Pacific Time.

April gold was up 12.80 to 1711.50. May silver was up 0.38 to 34.21.

 

My Most Active Stocks Index was up 2 at 296.

 

The Big Money Breadth Index was up 2 at 1026.

 

GDX was down 0.08 at 53.40.

 

HUI was up 0.49 to 509.92.

 

CRB Commodity Index was up 1.57 at 317.61.

 

The VIX down 0.84 to 17.11.

 

Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX) was up 0.24 at 48.82 (previous day closing). YTD Return: 5.88%.

 

 

Late Notes -- Volume is low. On dying volume neither the Dow nor gold gave us any hints of things to come, although I must say the stock market appears to be strenhthening. The brightest star for the future is in the Lowry's statistics. If this continues, we could get a crossing of Buying Power above Selling pressure, and that would be huge.