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Strebler's Perspective

August, 2017 Archives

Pick Up Some Shares?

by Jon S. Strebler 

 

I bought my first pickup truck – that peculiarly American vehicle – in 1981 after moving to rural Oregon. It was a 1963 Chevy that set me back $700, handy for hauling in top soil and manure for the garden, hauling trash to the dump, and quick trips into town. In the years since, I’ve owned another Chevy truck, an Isuzu, a couple of Toyotas, and a couple of Fords – including the F-150 we bought last October. It hauls landscaping and construction materials from Home Depot, surfboards to the beach, takes us on camping trips and me on hunting trips, and is a nice, comfortable ride for everyday.

 

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Finally - A Correction!

by Jon S. Strebler

 

MAYBE. The Dow is down 500 points from its highs, which is only 2.25% - but still 500 points is 500 points.  Forget this drivel about corrections only happening with a 10% decline or more; there is neither historical nor academic justification for this myth.  There are small corrections, medium-sized corrections, and large ones.  So far we have a small correction, a buying opportunity of sorts, but perhaps just the first stage in what turns out to be a more substantial correction, or even a bear market (you never know). 

 

 

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Talk's Cheap

by Jon S. Strebler

 

The big story last week was significant ratcheting up of war talk out of N. Korea, followed by “I’ll see you, and raise you” from the U.S. Stock prices swooned around the world, as everyone wondered just how far two of the world’s most volatile leaders, backing nuclear-powered militaries (sort of, in N. Korea’s case), might push things. The vulnerability of stocks to an overdue correction has been widely touted; sometimes corrections seemingly develop out of nothing, and sometimes a dramatic event precipitates them. Could this be an example of the latter? 

 

 

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Status Quo Est Eximio

By Jon S. Strebler 

 

If I remember my one year of Latin studies in 8th grade correctly, this means something like: Everything’s pretty good right now. At least in the markets. We’ve recommended moderate positions in stocks, both US and otherwise, for quite some time in line with the bull in The Box. With hindsight, we would like to have owned more, but this is an advisory service for conservative investors, the market has long been vulnerable to a big correction and – well, you know the story.

 

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US Dollar Woes

by Jon S. Strebler 

 

The US dollar has been weak for months, and by now that fact hasn’t escaped many people’s attention.  The reason for its weakness is an important question and the answer isn’t simple.  Those two facts (importance, and difficult to parse) are why world currency markets are larger than the commodity markets, stock markets, or bond markets.

 

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