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The International Investor

October, 2016 Archives

Global Policy Uncertainty

By Benjamin J. Butler

 

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China

 

I quite like this chart I found today, which tries to capture the level of policy uncertainty. You can find the details at www.policyuncertainty.com. But according to their website:

Each national EPU index reflects the relative frequency of own-country newspaper articles that contain a trio of terms pertaining to the economy (E), policy (P) and uncertainty (U). In other words, each monthly national EPU index value is proportional to the share of own-country newspaper articles that discuss economic policy uncertainty in that month.

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Enigmatic Bond Moves and Constitutional Crises

By Benjamin J. Butler

 

Hong Kong Special Autonomous Zone (SAR), Republic of China

 

I spent my morning on a stunning beach on the south side of Hong Kong, Repulse Bay enjoying the clear post typhoon weather. Yesterday there was incredible flooding all around the island, with buses even nearly being swept away by excess rain water.  The calm weather today seems to reflect my mood. Despite feeling very concerned about the world I feel deep down that everything will be ok, and "this too shall pass."

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The Kim Kardashian Media

by Benjamin J. Butler

 

We seem to be living in a surreal world. We, in the West, used to regularly accuse developing nations of corruption and misallocation of capital. I remember the big uncovering of the “Asia Miracle” after the Asia Crisis in 1997. But, as Bill Gross wrote in his monthly investment letter, central bank policies are totally rigging the system and resulting in capital misallocation. How long can this persist?

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