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Strebler's Perspective

September, 2016 Archives

Faith and Patience

by Jon S. Strebler

 

Back in the time of Cotton Mather and the Salem witch trials, Faith and Patience were common names for females, reflective of that time’s heavy focus on virtue. The country has come a long way since the 1600s, and virtue is still important, but not so much and in ways that the Puritans would have found profoundly shocking. Still, those two names describe virtues or at least goals that are important for successful long-term investing.

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Good News, But ...

By Jon S. Strebler

 

According to a Census Bureau report from September 12th, Americans have finally seen a meaningful increase in their incomes. Real median incomes, which continued to drop for a couple of years after the Great Recession ended, rose a sharp 5.2% to $56,516 in 2015, following a milder 2% gain in 2014. That was the largest yearly jump since the Bureau started keeping such records in 1967, but it still leaves incomes below their 2007 levels, which in turn was below 1999’s record level of $57,909.

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Do Election Risks "Trump" Interest Rate Risks?

by Jon S. Strebler

 

According to a source that studies such things, the stock market’s action this summer is indicative of a likely Clinton win this November. Specifically, they tell us there’s an 80% chance that Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump in this fall’s election, thus essentially continuing the policies and so forth of the past eight Obama years. The market likes certainty, and its remarkable resilience, not to mention its series of new all-time highs, signals that Clinton – a known even if not ideal leader, will provide that. 

 

 

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The Market Under Obama

by Jon S. Strebler

 

Jeff Sommer, writing for the New York Times, reminds us that if we had been smart or lucky enough to buy stocks (say, an ETF like SPY) on President Obama's first day in office, our investment would have tripled by now. On January 20, 2009 the country was in the grips of the Great Recession, with unemployment and home foreclosures going off the charts and SPY, representing the S&P 500, sitting at a dismal 80.57 – less than half its value just two years earlier. Things would worsen further, with SPY eventually falling briefly into the 50s, but then began the great bull market that continues even today. Now at 218, SPY hasn't quite tripled; but with dividends added in, it's probably close to that which, in any case, ain't bad at all.

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