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Richard's Wisdom

July, 2016 Archives

Richard's Thoughts on the Perfect Business

By Mary Anne and Pamela Aden and the Dow Theory Team

 

Richard's Comments

 

For my own part, I've been in a number of businesses -- from textiles to book publishing to owning a night club to the advisory business.

 

Along the way I developed this list of criteria which go to make up the mythical PERFECT BUSINESS. Now obviously, the ideal business does not exist and never will.

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Richard's Thoughts on the Three D's ... Dollar, Debt, and Deflation

Richard's Comments

 

I want all my subscribers to fully comprehend the following concept: today the whole world must be viewed as a gigantic flow-of-funds entity. Today, money moves internationally.

 

If wheat is over-priced, money from all over the world moves out of wheat. If the stock of Time Warner is a worry because the company is up to its neck in debt, money from around the world moves out of Time-Warner. If German denominated bonds look undervalued, global funds pour into German bonds. In other words, today all values must be considered in terms of global valuation and global money flows.

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Richard's Thoughts on the PTI

By Mary Anne and Pamela Aden and the Dow Theory Team

 

Richard's Comments

 

My Primary Trend Index (PTI) is an amalgam of eight critical averages and indicators. Each indicator is based on the ACTION of the stock market (as opposed to sentiment indicators, monetary issues, short sales, etc.).

 

I developed the PTI in the late 1960's and early '70's for the purpose of aiding me in identifying the major or primary trend of the market.

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Richard's Thoughts On Recession

By Mary Anne and Pamela Aden and the Dow Theory Team

 

Richard's Comments

 

Here is where we come to the difficult part of the picture...

 

The US is in a position where any recession would be disastrous. Any severe recession would drop the government's tax take drastically, and if that happened the budget deficit would soar off into space.

 

At the same time, if we experience a recession the pressure will be on for the government to spend more, not less. And raising taxes during a recession is well-nigh impossible.

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Richard's Thoughts On Kondratieff Cycle

By Mary Anne and Pamela Aden and the Dow Theory Team

 

Richard's Comments

 

Many astute friends of mine in the advisory business have been saying that we are in the downward phase of the great 54-56-year Kondratieff cycle. I can't confirm this.

 

I've seen good articles to the effect that there is indeed a "long wave" or Kondratieff cycle. And I've known intelligent analysts who totally reject the concept.

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