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Matt's Market Insights

July, 2016 Archives

Everything Hinges on Inflation (Expectations)

By Matthew Kerkhoff

 

A few weeks ago I wrote a piece about the flattening yield curves in the top five economies. The implication being that these economies are under duress, as investors forgo adequate compensation in favor of stashing their cash somewhere safe.

 

Before getting into the heart of today’s article, I want to show you a great chart that I came across. It’s a three-dimensional chart of the U.S. yield curve.

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Earn Income by Renting Out Your Stocks

By Matthew Kerkhoff

 

Different market conditions require different strategies and tactics. A well rounded investor must have a playbook that allows him or her to make money in all types of markets.

 

In a rising bull market, making money is easy. In fact, there’s a distinct trend in the investment advisory business in which subscriber growth tends to moderate during strong bull markets. Why? Because when the tide is rising, you can pretty much buy anything and it will go up.

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Goldilocks and the Bear Market

By Matthew Kerkhoff

 

Not too warm, not too cold, can describe many aspects of the U.S. economy. Take last week’s jobs report as an example. According to estimates, 287,000 jobs were created, but this did little more than balance out the previous month’s weak 11,000 figure.

 

Taken together, the two months put us near the 172,000 monthly jobs that the economy has averaged during 2016.

 

Wages fit into the same category, rising 2.6% in the 12 months through June 2016 (the highest during this recovery) but only up 1.3% in real terms during 2016.

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Is the Bond Market Still Smarter?

By Matthew Kerkhoff

 

The conventional wisdom among fixed-income traders is that the bond market is smarter than the stock market when it comes to forecasting where the economy is headed.

 

Considering that many of the smartest stock traders agree with this notion, it’s always worth keeping a watchful eye on the fixed income markets.

 

When it comes to reading the debt markets, one of the most valuable things we can analyze is the shape of the yield curve. Back in 2013, I wrote an article explaining the importance of the yield curve, and what the shape of the yield curve implies for economic growth moving forward.

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