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Strebler's Perspective

April, 2016 Archives

Fickle Winds

by Jon S. Strebler

 

Writing this on a gorgeous Sunday morning, looking out through a big kitchen window at a farm B&B in England’s lovely Cotswolds region. I’m happy to be done with our 14-day Atlantic cruise. My wife, like so many others, just loves cruising, but I get bored quickly of reading, eating, walking the deck, eating, napping – repeat. The cruise itself was nice enough, with unpleasant weather only once or twice. One evening, seemingly out of nowhere, the winds picked up and the seas just went wild. But by morning, both wind and seas were totally calm. Bizarre and, in a way, reminiscent of how markets behave at times.
 

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Trends

By Jon S. Strebler

 

The trend is your friend, we all say. But an interesting question is whether it is better to try to identify a newly changed trend, or to ride only proven existing trends. I’m not sure what the right answer is. Trends often continue and continue and continue; those who simply hop on board and ride them through thick and thin are big winners. Those quick to see their demise end up being repeatedly fooled, losing at every turn. Other times, markets tend to trendlessness, and at the sign of a trend petering out one is better off quickly switching horses.

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Accommodation vs. Aggravation

By Jon S. Strebler

 

Markets rarely accommodate, that is: they too seldom do what we want or expect them to do. Thus, the wisdom of diversification, the theme of last Friday’s column. And the need for humility, and for modest expectations, and for all kinds of other things that for the most part make us better human beings. Thus, the market’s role of Teacher, about which Mr. Russell wrote so often.

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Nothing Pays Anything!

by Jon S. Strebler

 

Forgive me if some of this is redundant, as it’s hard to write week after week without sometimes repeating yourself. But I’m a Libra, and even though I place next to no value on the proto-science of astrology, it strikes me as curious that my sign is represented by a balance scale, which pretty accurately represents who I am as a person. I’m always looking at both sides, always saying things like “on the one hand ..., but on the other hand…” and as a result find myself in the middle of issues more often than not.

 

 

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