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Strebler's Perspective

March, 2016 Archives

Out of Gas?

by Jon S. Strebler

 

That was the general feeling I got while looking over the various markets’ performances and charts last week. The items that are most of interest to us look as if they’ve run out of gas after many weeks of strength and are rolling over, ready for a fall.   In a perfect world, this is great news; stocks, precious metals, oil shares and mining shares – all decline for the next few weeks, giving us the buying opportunity we’ve been waiting for.  But realizing just what sort of perverse world we live in, I’m worried about two other ways things could play out.  In the first, prices drop just a bit more, but then spin around to once more take off on the upside, again without us fully on board.  This has happened often enough as to be more than just an outside possibility. 


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The Case for Compromise

by Jon S. Strebler

 

The American people believe – wrongly, for the most part – that the nation’s big income inequality problem can be legislated away.  This isn’t happening; in fact the legislative branch of our federal government (Congress) has been stalemated for years now, accomplishing almost nothing having to do with anything.  This is largely the result of unwillingness by both Democrats and Republicans to compromise in order to get things done.  That, in turn, has led to widespread dissatisfaction with “establishment” politicians and, ultimately, the prospect of having to choose this November between a candidate who is stupendously unqualified to be President, and another whose ideas are so extreme as to almost guarantee his ineffectiveness.


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A Closer Look at ETFs

by Jon S. Strebler

 

Let’s start with our view of the stock market here at DTL, in particular the US market.  We have rated it as being bearish, in a bear market, for reasons discussed often enough already.  At the same time, I have suggested that this may be a particular type of bear market, where stocks flop back and forth between A New Bull Market! and The Bear is Back!  In any case, it doesn’t seem to be a favorable environment for investors overall, though we’ve identified certain sectors, along with a long-term strategy, that may nevertheless be profitable for readers. 

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Daily Recap

Stock markets as a whole didn't do a heck of a lot today, but intra-day and within certain sectors, there was some pretty exciting action.  The main features today were continuing concern over China's debt-ridden and slowing economy, higher oil prices, and what the ECB will decide about interest rates and the money supply for Europe tomorrow.  

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The Case FOR Stocks

By Jon S. Strebler

 

Last week we looked at, among other things, the state of our current Dow Theory bear market. We concluded that we had to consider the stock market as being bearish, i.e. the path of least resistance being lower. But we acknowledged several chinks in the armor of such a conclusion. Since that time, stocks have continued to rally, taking the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 17,000 as of Friday’s closing. This action has prompted more than a few people to question the claim of an ongoing bear market. I don’t blame them, and here’s why.

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Daily Recap

Markets seem unfazed by the latest US primary results, which make Donald Trump seem all but unstoppable as the Republican presidential candidate in November.  Yet some writers are already commenting on how his presidency - still a very long-shot - might affect the various markets. 

 

But today was mild for the most part.  Asian markets were strong; Nikkei and Shanghai were both up over 4%.  European markets went basically nowhere, as did US stocks, which managed to hold on to yesterday's huge gains, partly aided by a strong jobs report (214,000 new jobs created).

 

 

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