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Strebler's Perspective

Latest Articles

A Pause in the Action

By Jon S. Strebler

 

US markets continue to revolve, at least to some degree, around the things that President-elect Trump says and does. Almost every day brings something new and shocking, things that might roil markets but for the most part haven’t. With the inauguration just a couple of days away, people are wondering if it’s going to stay this way, or if things will calm down and Trump will act in more predictable and presidential ways once in office. Time will tell.

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BIG Numbers

By Jon S. Strebler

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been threatening to blow through 20,000 for the last few weeks – a feat especially remarkable since it first rose above 19,000 in November. The causes, the rationale – all of that has been done to death. Today we’ll merely look at the action of the Dow breaking above a big round number and what that means.

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Time Frames Matter

by Jon S. Strebler

 

We haven’t looked at the precious metals much in recent weeks, but with the New Year upon us, it’s about time to do so. Are gold, silver, platinum, and their mining shares bullish or bearish, undervalued or overvalued? That’s surely what we want to know, but the answers are not so simple. One of the complicating factors is the time frame we’re using.

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Dow 100,000 in 20 Years?

By Jon S. Strebler

 

We read this kind of silliness when the stock market is really bullish, especially during the third psychological phase of a bull market. During that phase, stocks have discounted the likely impact of positives acting upon stock prices, and then take it further by predicting favorable developments that aren’t so likely – along with ignoring unfavorable things that eventually do happen. Thus, the third phase of a bull market is a speculative one, when stocks move higher in nearly parabolic fashion, to prices that are unjustified and unsustainable. 

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New Time, New Paradigm?

by Jon S. Strebler

 

I’m not the only one out there that thinks the election of Donald Trump as the next President signals a big break with the past – a new time, if you will. Sure, we hear a lot of “well, he’s different, but we have checks and balances, and in four (or eight) more years, he’ll be gone and the country ­­­­will just move in the next direction, no worse for wear.” I doubt it. Whether you think Trump is the scum of the earth or America’s knight on a white horse, we’ve never seen anything like him. His influence will be broad and long-lasting, and probably in ways people haven’t even realized yet.

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All In!

by Jon S. Strebler

 

That’s what Wall Street seems to be thinking and doing the past few weeks. Donald Trump will become President in January, and he will immediately start making a great many changes that will benefit businesses and investors. The two largest areas of such change will be in reducing regulations on business, and increasing government spending, most notably on the nation’s infrastructure. Trump’s election being such a surprise to Wall Street, it was caught flat-footed and is now surging to reflect how this new era and pro-business atmosphere will impact bottom lines. Dollars are flowing into US stocks by the tens of billions, with no end in sight as nobody wants to be left out. Wall Street is going ALL IN on Trump.

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