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November, 2017 Archives

Richard's Thoughts on Bull Markets and Corrections

Richard's Comments

 

The single most difficult concept to get across to investors (and I say this after many years of writing about it) is the concept of the great primary trend of the market.

 

A primary trend, bull or bear, once set in motion, does not reverse until it is EXHAUSTED. A bull market such as this one, for example, will not top out until the bull forces have totally spent themselves. Thus, a bull market will not die on bad news, economic recessions, corporate disasters or political threats.

 

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Daily Recap

It was another weird day in the markets with hints of deja vu from yesterday.  Overseas markets were again lower across the board, with Spain (up 0.24%) the sole exception.  In Asia, the NIKKEI lost 1.5%, leading the Asia Dow to a 1.23% decline.  European exchanges fared somewhat better, with the STOXX 600 down 0.49%.

 

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Contrary Opinion

by Jon S. Strebler

 

Contrary opinion, in short, is looking for times and places where almost everyone is doing the same thing, and then choosing to do the opposite. The concept gets mixed reviews in the world of investing. On the one hand, we’re supposed to follow the trend, which pretty much equates to going with the majority. We are assured over and over again that this is the true way to big profits. Yet we are warned to watch out when everyone is saying the same thing; “If it’s obvious to everyone, it’s obviously wrong” was the old investing adage I learned long ago, and one way contrary opinion could be expressed. 

 

 

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Richard’s Thoughts: Lessons from the Past

Richard’s Comments

 

The following was written on January 16, 2004

 

Investing today is just plain different and difficult. Today, it's a global world, and billions of dollars are being invested by managers using "other people's money."  

 

Investing to me has always been a matter of buying great values at a time when most people won't touch these same values.

 

Which, of course, brings up the question, "Are there any great values today, and if so -- where the heck are they?"

 

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