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 Welcome to Dow Theory Letters

A Leader and Innovator in Technical Stock Market Analysis

 for over 50 Years!

 

Richard Russell and his team of talented analysts work daily to bring you the best of primary trend analysis, investor education and intelligent investing advice.

 

How We Are Different

  • We believe in “market timing.” Our goal is to get you out at the top and in at the bottom of major, long-term market moves.
  • Daily edition. Dow Theory Letters is published daily, an hour after the market closes, at 2 pm, Pacific Standard Time. 
  • Value. We provide the analysis of our entire team to you for one low price.

 

What You Get

  • Daily market analysis from one of our outstanding columnists
  • Daily commentary and musings from analyst emeritus Richard Russell
  • The Primary Trend Index (PTI) our proprietary trend indicator
  • Market data section with everything you need to get a full picture of how the market is evolving

 

 

Quote of the Day

"Nothing ever goes away until it has taught us what we need to know."  Pema Chodron

Richard's Remarks

Below we see the D-J Industrial Average sinking below both its June and July lows and falling to an August low.

 

Now compare the Transports on their decline to the Industrials. The Transports on their decline held above the June low -- whereas the Industrials broke below both the June and July lows. In other words, the Transports halted at 7983 and in so doing, they refused to confirm the greater decline of the Industrials. This flagrant non-confirmation led to the post-June Industrial rally back to just below the previous record high.

 

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Strebler's Perspective

The last good war” – that’s what WWII was often referred to.  Not because any war is “good,” but because it was pretty clearly a matter of the good guys fighting against the bad guys back then.  Vietnam, Iraq in 2003 – those are examples of the wars that followed; wars that reasonable people could argue for or against, and regularly do.

 

But ISIS (or ISIL) – you’re not going to find many reasonable people suggesting that these guys are anything but evil incarnate, who need to be neutralized.  We need to do everything in our power to at least significantly degrade this terrorist state’s abilities, and it needs to happen sooner rather than later.  Don’t we?  Whether it’s for selfish, existential reasons (as British PM Cameron explained Friday after ramping up the country’s terror threat level to “severe”), or more altruistic reasons (e.g. the beheading of anyone with different religious beliefs) - who among the civilized nations of the world does not agree ISIS needs to be dealt with in a most serious manner?

 

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Richard's Remarks

How serious is the Ukraine situation and will it lead to out-right war? I'm depending on the stock market to provide me with the answer. The two important lows that I am watching are the Industrial low of 16,915 on July 10th, and the June Transport low of 7963. As long as one or both of these lows hold, the situation will remain constructive, if not bullish.

 

Note on the daily chart below that on the recent decline, the Industrials broke below the preceding July and June lows. The important thing about this decline is that the Transports halted their decline this side of their June lows at 7983, thus the Transports refused to confirm the weaker Industrial Average.

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Matt's Market Insights

I'm going to use this site to try and clarify aspects of the Market Data section that subscribers have inquired about.

The Market Data page, which can be accessed by clicking on "MARKET DATA" from the blue menu bar, is broken into two sections. The first section contains all information relating to Richard's proprietary Primary Trend Index (PTI). The second section contains all other market data. You'll notice that you have to be logged in as an active subscriber to view the PTI information, but any visitor to our site can see the rest of the market data.

 

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