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 Welcome to Dow Theory Letters

A Leader and Innovator in Technical Stock Market Analysis

 for over 50 Years!

 

Richard Russell and his team of talented analysts work daily to bring you the best of primary trend analysis, investor education and intelligent investing advice.

 

How We Are Different

  • We believe in “market timing.” Our goal is to get you out at the top and in at the bottom of major, long-term market moves.
  • Daily edition. Dow Theory Letters is published daily, an hour after the market closes, at 2 pm, Pacific Standard Time. 
  • Value. We provide the analysis of our entire team to you for one low price.

 

What You Get

  • Daily market analysis from one of our outstanding columnists
  • Daily commentary and musings from analyst emeritus Richard Russell
  • The Primary Trend Index (PTI) our proprietary trend indicator
  • Market data section with everything you need to get a full picture of how the market is evolving

 

 

Quote of the day

"A politician thinks of the next election; a statesman thinks of the next generation." James Freeman Clarke

Don't Sweat Nasdaq 5000

By Matthew Kerkhoff

 

On March 10, 2000 - at the height of the dot-com bubble, the Nasdaq closed at 5048.62. During intraday trading today, the Nasdaq traded past the 5,000 mark for the first time in 15 years. The Nasdaq approaching its prior high has been causing a flurry of discussion about overvalued markets and possible "writing on the wall."

 

Back in 2000, the Nasdaq spent only two days above the 5,000 mark before it began a rapid decent. By the end of the year the index had lost over half its value and would ultimately fall 78% to just above the 1,000 mark.

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Richard's Journey

By Richard Russell

 

As I write an hour before the close, the Dow is at another record high. The Dow has been climbing in a sawtoothed pattern with a new record high approximately every other day. If the Dow has predictive abilities, which I think it does, we’re looking at a glorious time for the US over the next 4-6 months. At the same time, spot gold is selling at 1205.20, still bullishly above its support at 1200. 

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Fully Invested Bears

By Richard Russell


The best description of large investors today is that they are fully invested bears. Everybody is hoping to identify the top of this bull market. In their efforts to identify the top they’re using strategies that identified previous bull market tops. I don’t think it will work. This bull market has surpassed previous upside limits, and I believe this will continue -- we will see price earnings ratios that have never been seen before. We are already seeing miniscule dividend yields never seen before. 

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Volatility Down, Desire for Growth Up

By Matthew Kerkhoff

 

Most major indexes set new highs this week with the notable exception of the Transports, which remain near all time highs but have been unable to overcome resistance just above 9200 (chart below). I'll reiterate that I believe it's just a matter of time before this index confirms the Industrials for the first time in 2015. Oil is slated to remain under pressure and that will keep costs low as well as allow for more disposable income to be spent on items such as travel (five of the twenty Dow Transport components are airlines).

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