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 Welcome to Dow Theory Letters

A Leader and Innovator in Technical Stock Market Analysis

 for over 50 Years!

 

Richard Russell and his team of talented analysts work daily to bring you the best of primary trend analysis, investor education and intelligent investing advice.

 

How We Are Different

  • We believe in “market timing.” Our goal is to get you out at the top and in at the bottom of major, long-term market moves.
  • Daily edition. Dow Theory Letters is published daily, an hour after the market closes, at 2 pm, Pacific Standard Time. 
  • Value. We provide the analysis of our entire team to you for one low price.

 

What You Get

  • Daily market analysis from one of our outstanding columnists
  • Daily commentary and musings from analyst emeritus Richard Russell
  • The Primary Trend Index (PTI) our proprietary trend indicator
  • Market data section with everything you need to get a full picture of how the market is evolving

 

 

Quote of the Day

"Once again, we come to the Holiday Season, a deeply religious time that each of us observes in his own way, by going to the mall of his choice." Dave Barry

Richard's Remarks

I guess I’m the loneliest man in the investment business. The market was up sharply yesterday on the Fed’s advice to be patient regarding when they would raise rates. I note that most advisors are bullish regarding the year ahead for the stock market.

 

Yet strangely, I think I’m the only advisor talking about the third phase of the bull market. As I see it, we are slowly and subtly entering into the third speculative phase of the great bull market. As I write, 50 minutes before the close, I note that the Dow and the Transports are quietly creeping higher. How the market closes on Fridays is always interesting, since it shows what traders are willing to take home with them.

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Matt's Market Insights

Yesterday was a rather unique day. Besides the 421 point rally in the Industrials, we saw a decoupling of the broader market from oil, which fell another 3.5%. Apparently the promise of continued low rates trumps worries about deflation and slowing growth, signaled by falling energy prices.

 

Between Wednesday and Thursday the S&P climbed nearly 4.5%, erasing most of the losses from last week. The S&P sits within striking distance of a new high and Dow 18,000 party hats are making another appearance.

 

There are a lot of reasons to remain bullish on stocks ...

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Richard's Remarks

I'm going to start today's site with a Question and Answer format:

 

Q: Russell, you’ve been talking about a third phase of the bull market for over a month now, why have you been so sure of a third phase?

 

A: One advantage of being 90 years old is that I have a lot of experience with markets.

 

Q: What experience told you we were headed for a third phase?

 

A: The experience that helped me was from the years 1957 to 1960.

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The ETF Investor

As all the world's markets pull back, it can be tough to know where to hide. Maybe the best option is to sit tight and just ride it out, but what if this next pullback is finally the next 20% or greater one? Can we survive such a drawdown? Perhaps shifting some assets into cash during such times makes sense, but what if this market is just having another one of its shallow pullbacks? If that's the case, in hindsight we would likely be making the wrong move at exactly the wrong time.

 

One strategy that can keep investors in the stock market full time, not require them to attempt to pick market tops and bottoms, and also help them to outperform is a strategy called Sector Rotation. Sector Rotation will suggest to investors which sectors to overweight and which to underweight in their portfolios. It doesn't require predicting the future, and facilitates lower volatility and more passive, rules-based investing, making it a great solution for many investors.

 

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