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 Welcome to Dow Theory Letters

A Leader and Innovator in Technical Stock Market Analysis

 for over 50 Years!

 

Richard Russell and his team of talented analysts work daily to bring you the best of primary trend analysis, investor education and intelligent investing advice.

 

How We Are Different

  • We believe in “market timing.” Our goal is to get you out at the top and in at the bottom of major, long-term market moves.
  • Daily edition. Dow Theory Letters is published daily, an hour after the market closes, at 2 pm, Pacific Standard Time. 
  • Value. We provide the analysis of our entire team to you for one low price.

 

What You Get

  • Daily market analysis from one of our outstanding columnists
  • Daily commentary and musings from analyst emeritus Richard Russell
  • The Primary Trend Index (PTI) our proprietary trend indicator
  • Market data section with everything you need to get a full picture of how the market is evolving

 

 

Quote of the Day

August 20, 2014 -- "A woman's mind is cleaner than a man's: She changes it more often." Oliver Herford

Richard's Remarks

Cycles -- Since 1932 stocks have not had a losing year during the third year of a presidential term. Nothing is written in stone when it comes to stock market cycles, but the presidential election cycle has been accurate for 80 years.

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As subscribers know I have been fixated on the transportation high of 8468. A half hour before the close, transports are up 44 to 8458. Only 10 points from the record high. My guess is that transports may hit a new record high by tomorrow's close. If this happens, we will have a moment of truth. Will the Dow confirm or will there be trouble ahead? To confirm a new high in the transports, the Dow would have to close above 17138, it's previous record high.

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Matt's Market Insights

Attention is turning once again to rates and central banking as we move through the midpoint of the trading week. The latest FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm today and no doubt a frenzy of parsing and tea-leaf reading will ensue. This act will be a warm-up for Friday's main event at Jackson Hole, in which both Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi are expected to provide their outlook on the global economy and monetary policy.

Investors are accustomed to a "Jackson Hole rally," as every time Bernanke has spoken at the event since 2007, stocks have rallied. But this time may be different, as the nature of the conversation is slowly changing. It's likely that Yellen will reiterate her dovish points about slack in the labor market and loose monetary conditions remaining appropriate, but any sign of dwindling dovishness could take the markets lower.

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Richard's Remarks

My old friend, Harry Brown, invented the Permanent Portfolio. This is a mixture of equities, bonds, gold and T-bills. The amounts are adjusted each year. The permanent portfolio was not created to build profits, but as a place to preserve wealth. The chart below traces the action of the Permanent Portfolio over the last few months. As you can see, it is above its 50-day moving average and close to its recent record high. I continue to like it as a place to store one's assets without the usual sleepless nights.

 

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Strebler's Perspective

As a history buff, I never cease to be amazed and humbled by just how much history I don’t know. Perhaps the saddest example of that was that I, with a master’s degree in U.S. History, didn’t learn who Rosa Parks was until about 20 years ago. Well, none of my graduate courses dealt with the civil rights movement, and when I was in school back in the 50s, 60s and 70s, they didn’t teach us about her. So - not my fault, but still: pretty embarrassing. I fear my knowledge has thousands of Rosa Parks-like gaps.

 

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