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 Welcome to Dow Theory Letters

A Leader and Innovator in Technical Stock Market Analysis

 for over 50 Years!


Richard Russell and his team of talented analysts work daily to bring you the best of primary trend analysis, investor education and intelligent investing advice.


How We Are Different

  • We believe in “market timing.” Our goal is to get you out at the top and in at the bottom of major, long-term market moves.
  • Daily edition. Dow Theory Letters is published daily, an hour after the market closes, at 2 pm, Pacific Standard Time. 
  • Value. We provide the analysis of our entire team to you for one low price.


What You Get

  • Daily market analysis from one of our outstanding columnists
  • Daily commentary and musings from analyst emeritus Richard Russell
  • The Primary Trend Index (PTI) our proprietary trend indicator
  • Market data section with everything you need to get a full picture of how the market is evolving



Quote of the Day

"To teach how to live with uncertainty, yet without being paralysed by hesitation, is perhaps the chief thing philosophy can do."  Bertrand Russell


Richard's Remarks

I just had a physical checkup. My doctor called and told me that I had a urinary infection. He immediately prescribed antibiotics. I grew up before the age of antibiotics when every infection was a potential emergency. When I was 8 years old, I contracted a mastoid infection. My parents took me to a top doctor in New York City and he turned me down thinking he could not save me. In despair, my parents found another doctor that was willing to operate. In those days, before antibiotics, the surgeon had to cut out the infection with a scalpel. I survived. Today, my mastoid infection would be cured with a few antibiotic pills. My mother's mother died of an infection when my mother was 3. Her sister died of a mastoid infection when my mother was 21. How did we ever survive the years before antibiotics? Many of us did not is the answer.


The International Investor

Trading is probably the hardest thing you'll ever attempt to be successful at. That's not because it requires intellect; quite the contrary! But because the more you think you know, the less successful you'll be. Trading is hard because you have to operate in a state of not having to know, even though your analysis may turn out at times to be perfectly correct.


-- Mark Douglas, Trading Coach.

I enjoyed Richards post yesterday about fear. I think that it's one of the most difficult states that we have to deal with as both investors and as human beings. There are many reasons why we enter a state of fear; in investment it might be that we don't have the answers and we worry about losing a lot of money. Bertrand Russells definition of philosophy is quite close to my (and Richard Russell's!) outlook on investment:


"To teach how to live with uncertainty, yet without being paralyzed by hesitation, is perhaps the chief thing philosophy can do."


Richard's Remarks

The question that's haunting me, the question I keep asking myself, is this -- With the Fed manipulating the stock and bond markets, is the stock market still a valid and useful discounter of the future?

The chart below tracks the advance-decline line, which follows the trend of the majority of stocks on the NYSE. The A-D line is currently at a new high. This is strange because the D-J Averages are not at new highs (which is a strange and negative situation).


If there's trouble ahead, then why isn't the stock market giving us warnings? Actually (read yesterday's site) it has.


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Matt's Market Insights

Many folks are anxiously waiting to see whether 2nd quarter GDP will be revised downward. Recall that GDP contracted by 2.1% during the 1st quarter, and the initial reading on second quarter GDP came in at 4%. If 2nd quarter GDP falls to near 2%, growth for the first half of the year will be flat. And if 2nd quarter GDP is revised to show a contraction, it would meet the criteria generally deemed to identify a recession (two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction).


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