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 Welcome to Dow Theory Letters

A Leader and Innovator in Technical Stock Market Analysis

 for over 50 Years!

 

Richard Russell and his team of talented analysts work daily to bring you the best of primary trend analysis, investor education and intelligent investing advice.

 

How We Are Different

  • We believe in “market timing.” Our goal is to get you out at the top and in at the bottom of major, long-term market moves.
  • Daily edition. Dow Theory Letters is published daily, an hour after the market closes, at 2 pm, Pacific Standard Time. 
  • Value. We provide the analysis of our entire team to you for one low price.

 

What You Get

  • Daily market analysis from one of our outstanding columnists
  • Daily commentary and musings from analyst emeritus Richard Russell
  • The Primary Trend Index (PTI) our proprietary trend indicator
  • Market data section with everything you need to get a full picture of how the market is evolving

 

 

Quote of the Day

"When an investor focuses on short-term investments, he or she is observing the variability of the portfolio, not the returns - in short, being fooled by randomness." Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Wealth Trumps Income

Many years ago I predicted that in the future, the missing and most wanted item would be INCOME. Today, with interest rates scraping zero, I believe that wealth trumps income. The world is struggling in the face of deflationary pressures. And although everybody and every nation needs income, income today is as scarce as the proverbial hen’s teeth.

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Charting Investor Preferences

By Matthew Kerkhoff

 

It's been a little while since we've looked at charts of the Industrials and Transports, so let's begin there. 2015 has brought elevated levels of volatility, but the major averages really haven't gone anywhere. At the moment both the Dow and Transports are hovering near their 50-day moving averages. So far this year the Industrials have traded within a range from 17,300 - 17,900 and we currently sit right in the middle of that range. The 200-day moving average is still rising, indicating the longer term upward trend. But the 50-day MA is now flat as the index oscillates back and forth without a clear short-term direction.

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Big Picture Musings

By Richard Russell

 

Let’s step back and look at the big picture. Since WWII, the world has been on a leveraging and inflation ride. This powerful trend ended around the year 2000. From there the markets digested a change. The market built a five-year top, during which the fundamentals changed. From that time on, the trend changed to deleveraging and deflation. This can be seen dramatically in the collapse of oil, copper and many commodities. 

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The Importance of Owning Stocks

By Matthew Kerkhoff

 

It's often touted that gold is a great, perhaps the best hedge against inflation. I'm not sure why this belief is so widespread among precious metal enthusiasts, but a quick look at the chart below should help put things in perspective.

 

This is a long-term chart looking back more than 200 years at the real, inflation adjusted returns of major asset classes.

 

The fact that gold shows a positive real return (0.6%) demonstrates that over the long run, gold is in fact a good hedge against inflation. But as you can see, stocks and bonds are much, much better. During that same time period, bonds have provided a 3.5% annual return in excess of the rate of inflation. Stocks, the best performing asset class over the last couple hundred years, provided a 6.7% real annual return.

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