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 Welcome to Dow Theory Letters

A Leader and Innovator in Technical Stock Market Analysis

 for over 50 Years!

 

Richard Russell and his team of talented analysts work daily to bring you the best of primary trend analysis, investor education and intelligent investing advice.

 

How We Are Different

  • We believe in “market timing.” Our goal is to get you out at the top and in at the bottom of major, long-term market moves.
  • Daily edition. Dow Theory Letters is published daily, an hour after the market closes, at 2 pm, Pacific Standard Time. 
  • Value. We provide the analysis of our entire team to you for one low price.

 

What You Get

  • Daily market analysis from one of our outstanding columnists
  • Daily commentary and musings from analyst emeritus Richard Russell
  • The Primary Trend Index (PTI) our proprietary trend indicator
  • Market data section with everything you need to get a full picture of how the market is evolving

 

 

Quote of the Day

“A budget tells us what we can’t afford, but it doesn’t keep us from buying it.”  William Feather

Richard's Remarks

Yesterday I emphasized that we now have a total of 11 distribution days in the NASDAQ and the S&P. We also have a breakdown in the ratio of the U.S. Index of Coincident Economic Indicators to the Index of Lagging Economic Indicators. This ratio has a long history of turning down before recessions; its lead time has been less than a year to as long as four years.

 

As subscribers know, I have not liked the recent market action. We now have the “Hindenberg Omen" – so named after the destruction of the Zeppelin. The Hindenberg Omen is based on equal percentages of daily highs and lows. This omen has appeared before every market crash since WWII. Many Hindenberg Omens have appeared without accompanying crashes, but the fact that the Hindenberg has now appeared allows but does not guarantee a market crash.

 

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Matt's Market Insights

The fourth quarter begins today and we're starting things off on a sour note. After squeezing out a minor gain in the third quarter, the S&P marked its seventh consecutive quarterly gain, but has been trending down for the last two weeks. Global growth worries are creeping into everyone's mind, and a series of less-than-stellar economic reports this week has provided a catalyst for selling.

 

Historically the fourth quarter is good for stocks. According to research firm See It Market, since 1950 the SPX has been positive 78% of the time in the fourth quarter for an average 4% gain. It's anyone's guess whether this year will follow suit.

 

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Richard's Remarks

Wall Street and the advisory business thrive on activity. In a bear market, as participants are hurt, they leave Wall Street and volume contracts. As volume diminishes, Wall Street comes up with many plans that are aimed to stir up volume. As described on yesterday’s site, advisors feel pressure to recommend stocks to buy. To save themselves, advisors present lists of stocks to buy but always with stop loss orders alongside their buy recommendations. Thus advisors can list their successes and omit their failures. In the end, this procedure leaves subscribers frustrated and poorer.

 

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Strebler's Perspective

THE DEBASING EFFECTS OF HYPERBOLE may not be an issue of general concern, but it bothers me. We hear so often, for example, how some person or thing or event is “awesome!”, or more often heard lately - “amazing.” If virtually every other person or thing is “amazing,” then what does that do to the appreciation of someone or thing that literally IS amazing, that stands out among thousands of its particular category? “Perfect storms” are like that too. The first time I heard the phrase was a dozen years ago or so, as the title of a popular movie and description of the confluence of meteorological conditions that produced a truly extraordinary, once-in-a-lifetime type storm. But nowadays, the phrase is used to describe just about any big (amazing!) storm or event. The meaning of these and similar words and phrases has been debased, to where they don’t really mean all that much.





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