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 Welcome to Dow Theory Letters

A Leader and Innovator in Technical Stock Market Analysis

 for over 50 Years!

 

Richard Russell and his team of talented analysts work daily to bring you the best of primary trend analysis, investor education and intelligent investing advice.

 

How We Are Different

  • We believe in “market timing.” Our goal is to get you out at the top and in at the bottom of major, long-term market moves.
  • Daily edition. Dow Theory Letters is published daily, an hour after the market closes, at 2 pm, Pacific Standard Time. 
  • Value. We provide the analysis of our entire team to you for one low price.

 

What You Get

  • Daily market analysis from one of our outstanding columnists
  • Daily commentary and musings from analyst emeritus Richard Russell
  • The Primary Trend Index (PTI) our proprietary trend indicator
  • Market data section with everything you need to get a full picture of how the market is evolving

 

 

Quote of the Day

“To the barefoot man, happiness is a pair of shoes. To the man with old shoes, it’s a pair of new shoes. To the man with new shoes, it’s more stylish shoes. And of course, the fellow with no feet would be happy to be barefoot. Measure your life by what you have, not by what you don’t.“  -- Michael Josephson

Richard's Remarks

Wall Street and the advisory business thrive on activity. In a bear market, as participants are hurt, they leave Wall Street and volume contracts. As volume diminishes, Wall Street comes up with many plans that are aimed to stir up volume. As described on yesterday’s site, advisors feel pressure to recommend stocks to buy. To save themselves, advisors present lists of stocks to buy but always with stop loss orders alongside their buy recommendations. Thus advisors can list their successes and omit their failures. In the end, this procedure leaves subscribers frustrated and poorer.

 

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Strebler's Perspective

THE DEBASING EFFECTS OF HYPERBOLE may not be an issue of general concern, but it bothers me. We hear so often, for example, how some person or thing or event is “awesome!”, or more often heard lately - “amazing.” If virtually every other person or thing is “amazing,” then what does that do to the appreciation of someone or thing that literally IS amazing, that stands out among thousands of its particular category? “Perfect storms” are like that too. The first time I heard the phrase was a dozen years ago or so, as the title of a popular movie and description of the confluence of meteorological conditions that produced a truly extraordinary, once-in-a-lifetime type storm. But nowadays, the phrase is used to describe just about any big (amazing!) storm or event. The meaning of these and similar words and phrases has been debased, to where they don’t really mean all that much.





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Richard's Remarks

The newspaper headlines are so negative that it takes all my strength to read them. So what do they say about the trend of the market? Let's review a few technical items. New lows on Friday were triple the rate of new highs. The advance-decline line was rolling over. There are six distribution days on the NASDAQ and three distribution days on the S&P Composite. The pecentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages was at 43, well below the 50% level. Investor's Business Daily's index of 25 growth mutual funds shows a declining trend in this index.

 

So all in all, the technical backround for the stock maket does not look good. Nevertheless, the D-J Averages appear constructive.

 

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Matt's Market Insights

Most major US indexes are flirting with their 50-day moving averages, raising questions about the short to medium trend. In the chart below we can see the Industrials testing their 50-day MA; so far support has held. It's interesting to note that it was the 200-day MA that provided a floor for the sell-off back in late July and early August.

 

Same story with the Transports, as they bounce off the 50-day MA in sync with the Industrials. We received the most recent Dow Theory bullish confirmation just over a week ago. Investors would do well to remember that in the face of continued geopolitical unrest and global growth worries.

 

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