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 Welcome to Dow Theory Letters

A Leader and Innovator in Technical Stock Market Analysis

 for over 50 Years!

 

Richard Russell and his team of talented analysts work daily to bring you the best of primary trend analysis, investor education and intelligent investing advice.

 

How We Are Different

  • We believe in “market timing.” Our goal is to get you out at the top and in at the bottom of major, long-term market moves.
  • Daily edition. Dow Theory Letters is published daily, an hour after the market closes, at 2 pm, Pacific Standard Time. 
  • Value. We provide the analysis of our entire team to you for one low price.

 

What You Get

  • Daily market analysis from one of our outstanding columnists
  • Daily commentary and musings from analyst emeritus Richard Russell
  • The Primary Trend Index (PTI) our proprietary trend indicator
  • Market data section with everything you need to get a full picture of how the market is evolving

 

 

Quote of the Day

"Thanksgiving is an emotional time. People travel thousands of miles to be with people they see only once a year, and then discover once a year is way too often." Johnny Carson

Richard's Remarks

Another good day with the Dow and Transports both at record highs an hour before the close. There isn’t much institutional selling as we can see by the low number of distribution days -- two for the NASDAQ and one for the S&P. As I write shortly before the close, gold is selling at 1198.7 and it has been above 1200 many times today. The whole universe of gold is higher including HUI, GDM, GDXJ and GDX.

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Strebler's Perspective

SOME THINGS NEVER CHANGE, and some do. The trick is in figuring out which is which and when, if at all, they do. The U.S. stock market has to go down in the record books as one of the most unchanging “things” ever – at least over the last few years. I was looking over our daily chart books that go back to 1885, and didn’t see another example of the market rising for 3 full years without a correction of greater than 10%. As this chart of the Dow Industrials’ ETF additionally shows, the market hasn’t even (other than very temporarily) violated its 50-week moving average in the last 36 months. So this market never changes, although surely by clarifying the definition of “never,” even that too will change at some point. 

 

 


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Richard's Remarks

I’m looking at a report from the World Gold Council, September 2014. I was shocked to see that according to the official world gold holdings, the US holds the largest amount of gold of any nation in the world. Even more astounding, the US leads the world in the percentage of its currency reserves in gold. According to the World Gold Council, the US holds 72% of its forex reserves in gold.

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Matt's Market Insights

After missing an entire week I’m going to begin with a chart of the S&P 500, partly for your enjoyment, mostly for me to catch up and figure out what the heck happened last week.

 

The vertical dashed line marks where I left off. At the time, and as noted in the chart below, upward momentum was slowing, RSI was working its way into oversold territory and the faster moving (black) moving average was beginning to roll over, indicating a possible upcoming bearish MACD crossover.

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