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 Welcome to Dow Theory Letters

A Leader and Innovator in Technical Stock Market Analysis

 for over 50 Years!

 

Richard Russell and his team of talented analysts work daily to bring you the best of primary trend analysis, investor education and intelligent investing advice.

 

How We Are Different

  • We believe in “market timing.” Our goal is to get you out at the top and in at the bottom of major, long-term market moves.
  • Daily edition. Dow Theory Letters is published daily, an hour after the market closes, at 2 pm, Pacific Standard Time. 
  • Value. We provide the analysis of our entire team to you for one low price.

 

What You Get

  • Daily market analysis from one of our outstanding columnists
  • Daily commentary and musings from analyst emeritus Richard Russell
  • The Primary Trend Index (PTI) our proprietary trend indicator
  • Market data section with everything you need to get a full picture of how the market is evolving

 

 

Quote of the Day

"No matter where you go or what you od, you live your entire life within the confines of your head." Terry Josephson

 

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Dear Subscribers:

 

We are initiating a new project, to honor Richard Russell’s 90 years of living, over 50 years of writing, and the many Dow Theory Letters survey respondents from last year who indicated that his classic writings are an important part of our website. We want to compile more of Richard’s best writings into an enlarged section for the newly designed website.

 

In order to accomplish this ambitious project, we would like to ask subscribers’ help! Do you have favorite portions of past letters that you have saved, or favorite quotations by Richard Russell? Please send them to us (along with the date if possible)!

 

Beyond that, we are seeking volunteer help. Do you have the time and interest to go through five years of Dow Theory Letters (or just one year!) and pick out portions that you feel should be included in the “Best of Richard Russell” compilation? If you would like to help, we can offer you a free CD of Dow Theory Letters: 1958-2006 (a $300 value). (We also have a subscriber with an extensive set of back issues he is willing to donate to someone who would rather read on paper.)

 

OR are you a capable writer and organized person, who feels a calling to be involved in this undertaking in a major way? We want to find one person to oversee this project, organize it, and bring it to fruition. We can pay this person a stipend.

 

If you would like to get involved, please e-mail me at ddoering@dowtheoryletters.com with:

 
  • Your name and contact information
  • A brief statement of why you would like to be involved in this project, any qualifications you have, and what you feel you can contribute.
  • Any experience you have in writing or finance related fields (this is not a requirement, but just asking).
  • How much time you have to devote to this effort, or how many years of Dow Theory Letters you are willing to read through.
  • Are your computer skills sufficient to allow you to cut and paste passages into a Word document and e-mail it to us?

 

We are seeking passages related to: war stories, autobiographical material, “thoughts on living,” spirituality, health, stock market wisdom, and historic market calls or turning points, to start.  Volunteers could focus on one topic or another if they wish.

 

Thank you for considering our request, and we look forward to an exciting new feature for Dow Theory Letters! 

 

Best regards,

Daria Russell Doering

Managing Editor

Richard's Remarks

Friday saw the Dow close below the lower band of its trading range. I accepted this as a bearish indication. When an item closes below a major big number such as 17000, it is usual for the item to decline to test the next big number. The next lower big number on the Dow is 16000. I don’t expect the Dow to collapse or crash down to 16000. In fact, I think we could see the Dow fluctuate around for a time before making its way down to 16000. My brilliant friend, Gary Shilling, believes we are in a period of ten years during which the world will deleveraging and deflate. Gary believes that we have passed through six of the ten years, and that we have another four years of deflation and deleveraging to go.

 

 

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Matt's Market Insights

The stock market is taking a pause after its recent five-week rally, but it doesn't appear that investors are all that concerned about a major pullback or change in the primary trend. In the daily chart of the S&P 500 below we can see the broad market rolling over and getting ready to test its 50-day moving average. A bearish crossing of the MACD last week is further indication that momentum has changed and we should be prepared for more short-term weakness ahead.

 

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Richard's Remarks

I've been thinking, the people at the Fed may be deceivers and even liars, but they are not stupid. They know that the current system depends on constant, never-ending growth. But they also know that "no tree grows to the sky." So what are they really thinking? The people at the Fed realize that they have good jobs and that they have prestige. They also know that they will continue their Keynesian policies for as long as they are employed by the Fed. And then when the system breaks down, which it must some day, they will be retired and the next Fed employees will take over. So enjoy it while it lasts and let the next guy deal with the ugly consequences. The Fed members may be deceitful and given to lies -- but they are not stupid.

 

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Chad Karnes

Are Junk Bonds Signaling Pause in Equity Rally?

 

What does the bond market know that the stock market doesn’t?

 

Even the U.S. stocks (NYSEARCA:IWV) have been scoring one record high after another, the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:JNK) has gone in the opposite direction.

 

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