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 Welcome to Dow Theory Letters

A Leader and Innovator in Technical Stock Market Analysis

 for over 50 Years!

 

Founder Richard Russell's team of talented analysts work daily to bring you the best of primary trend analysis, investor education and intelligent investing advice.

 

How We Are Different

  • We believe in “market timing.” Our goal is to get you out at the top and in at the bottom of major, long-term market moves.
  • Daily edition. Dow Theory Letters is published daily, an hour after the market closes, at 2 pm, Pacific Standard Time. 
  • Value. We provide the analysis of our entire team to you for one low price.

 

What You Get

  • Daily market analysis from one of our outstanding columnists
  • "Richard's Wisdom" -- weekly column of selected past writings of Richard Russell, with commentary from the Dow Theory team relating them to market conditions today
  • The Primary Trend Index (PTI) our proprietary trend indicator
  • Market data section with everything you need to get a full picture of how the market is evolving

 

 


Quote of the Day

“If you are a gifted person, it doesn’t mean that you gained something. It means you have something to give back.” Carl Jung

The Ebb and Flow of Inventories

By Matthew Kerkhoff

 

Ask ten economists what causes recessions, and you’re likely to get fifteen different answers. Some will point to supply or demand shocks, policy errors, inflation, or sticky prices, while others, such as Hyman Minsky, will point toward fragility caused, oddly enough, by stability.

 

Each recession we experience is unique, and therefore it’s not surprising that identifying the root cause can be an arduous task.

 

But all recessionary periods share some of the same characteristics, and we can examine these similarities to identify periods when the probability of an approaching recession is higher than others.

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Richard's Thoughts On News, Trends and Phases

By the Dow Theory Team


Richard's Comments

 

Analysts and commentators scrutinize every news-bite, every fuzzy word, every Washington rumor, every squib in the Wall Street Journal -- for hints as to the direction of the stock market. I can tell you, however, that they're wasting their time.

 

Investing in the market on the basis of the President’s latest pronouncement, or the next story out of Congress is the royal road to losses. News events don't make the primary trend, nor do articles from Business Week, nor do tips from your favorite TV announcer. The primary trend is the great tidal force of the market and the economy, and it isn't set by the news of the day or the wishes of any group.

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The New Silk Road

By Benjamin J. Butler

 

I must admit I am getting tired of being bearish. Nevertheless, global markets seem to be under pressure from more confusion over central bank policy (this time hawkish minutes from the Fed).

 

In 2007 and at other times when I made quite cautious calls on various markets, I was comfortable in the sense that if I was right, it would just provide a wonderful opportunity to invest. If I was working for someone else, of course there was the risk of being fired, but I was always relatively confident of getting another job. It was getting my first ever job on Wall St. that was the toughest. After that, thankfully, I never had to apply again.

 

This time around, I have been fearful of societal breakdowns, civil unrest, terrorism and regime change.

 

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Daily Recap

Today saw further evidence of the Fed's willingness to raise interest rates next month, and thus further strength in the US dollar.  Gold initially stood tall in the face of this negative (for it) news, but caved in earnest as the day progressed.  Down $20 nearing the close, gold sliced through two consecutive areas of support and appears to want to go lower. 

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