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 Welcome to Dow Theory Letters

A Leader and Innovator in Technical Stock Market Analysis

 for over 50 Years!

 

Richard Russell and his team of talented analysts work daily to bring you the best of primary trend analysis, investor education and intelligent investing advice.

 

How We Are Different

  • We believe in “market timing.” Our goal is to get you out at the top and in at the bottom of major, long-term market moves.
  • Daily edition. Dow Theory Letters is published daily, an hour after the market closes, at 2 pm, Pacific Standard Time. 
  • Value. We provide the analysis of our entire team to you for one low price.

 

What You Get

  • Daily market analysis from one of our outstanding columnists
  • Daily commentary and musings from analyst emeritus Richard Russell
  • The Primary Trend Index (PTI) our proprietary trend indicator
  • Market data section with everything you need to get a full picture of how the market is evolving

 

 

Quote of the Day

"We are what we repeatedly do; excellence, then, is not an act but a habit." Aristotle

Richard's Remarks

The question of the day is whether the Fed will actually end QE or whether the Fed will continue its QE machinations into next year. Europe is sinking into recession and China is in a slump. The US is considered to be the only nation sporting a healthy economy. Therefore, the US dollar is widely held to be the only safe and healthy currency.

 

Furthermore, it’s the US Federal Reserve that has been chosen to save the world from the horrors of deflation. But will the Fed take on this mission? Will the Fed continue to battle against deflation by creating oceans of new liquidity? That’s the question of the hour, month and the year.

 

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Matt's Market Insights

With disinflation concerns front and center, measures of price stability are under heavy scrutiny. Today's CPI figures had a Goldilocks feel to them, not too warm but not too cold. Both headline and core price levels rose 0.1% for the month, a pace that equates to 1.2% annualized. For the prior twelve months, the CPI held steady at 1.7%.

 

The chart below shows the trend in the CPI. After inflation slowed in July and August, many became concerned about disinflation taking a firm grip on the US economy. That could still be the case but at least today's CPI figures show some stability. The mild trend higher in prices was the result of a few factors moving in opposing directions. Food and housing costs rose, but energy helped offset the increases elsewhere.

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Richard's Remarks

Sunday night’s 60 Minutes included an interesting segment on gold in Northern Canada and the Yukon. The interesting part of the piece was the remarkable attraction that gold has for men. “There’s no fever like gold fever” runs the old saying, and it’s true. At the thought of finding gold, men leave their families, pack up their belongings and head to the land of the yellow metal. Some men spend their lives looking for gold.


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Strebler's Perspective

A DOW THEORY SELL SIGNAL, SORT OF

 

As mentioned at the time, last week’s Dow Theory sell signal was open to interpretation, and wouldn’t necessarily be embraced by all. Therefore, I probably should have included those last couple of words (sort of) in my previous weekly column. A number of people have since pointed out that the new lows set by both Averages did not satisfy all of the requirements for Dow Theory sell signal. This is because prior to the Industrials and Transports dropping below their early-August correction lows, both Averages had made new highs. Technically, then, our current correction cannot signal the end of the Bull market and beginning of a Bear market according to Charles Dow’s theory, many say. 

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