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 Welcome to Dow Theory Letters

A Leader and Innovator in Technical Stock Market Analysis

 for over 50 Years!


Richard Russell and his team of talented analysts work daily to bring you the best of primary trend analysis, investor education and intelligent investing advice.


How We Are Different

  • We believe in “market timing.” Our goal is to get you out at the top and in at the bottom of major, long-term market moves.
  • Daily edition. Dow Theory Letters is published daily, an hour after the market closes, at 2 pm, Pacific Standard Time. 
  • Value. We provide the analysis of our entire team to you for one low price.


What You Get

  • Daily market analysis from one of our outstanding columnists
  • Daily commentary and musings from analyst emeritus Richard Russell
  • The Primary Trend Index (PTI) our proprietary trend indicator
  • Market data section with everything you need to get a full picture of how the market is evolving



Quote of the Day

"There's something about gold that tries men's souls." from the movie, The Treasure of the Sierra Madre

Richard's Remarks

We're entering what I call the moment of truth. Aside from all the noise and rumors, what do we really know? We know that Germany is slowing down, that their GDP is slumping. We know that China is slipping. We know that the world is deleveraging and deflating. We know that the Federal Reserve is deathly afraid of deflation, and is worried that with all their QE they still can't create two percent inflation. We also know that Germany is terrified of inflation and won't stand for quantitative easing or other inflationary tactics.

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Notes From an Actuary

By Jonathan Wallentine, our friend at Amco


Are Bonds "Risky" in a Rising Interest Rate Environment?


Given the current low interest rate environment we’ve found ourselves in since the financial crisis, I can’t count the number of times over the last few years that I’ve heard investors say, “and with that interest rate risk…” After hearing this over and over and giving the same explanation, I’ve decided to put my explanations and thoughts into print.

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Richard's Remarks

The question of the day is whether the Fed will actually end QE or whether the Fed will continue its QE machinations into next year. Europe is sinking into recession and China is in a slump. The US is considered to be the only nation sporting a healthy economy. Therefore, the US dollar is widely held to be the only safe and healthy currency.


Furthermore, it’s the US Federal Reserve that has been chosen to save the world from the horrors of deflation. But will the Fed take on this mission? Will the Fed continue to battle against deflation by creating oceans of new liquidity? That’s the question of the hour, month and the year.


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Matt's Market Insights

With disinflation concerns front and center, measures of price stability are under heavy scrutiny. Today's CPI figures had a Goldilocks feel to them, not too warm but not too cold. Both headline and core price levels rose 0.1% for the month, a pace that equates to 1.2% annualized. For the prior twelve months, the CPI held steady at 1.7%.


The chart below shows the trend in the CPI. After inflation slowed in July and August, many became concerned about disinflation taking a firm grip on the US economy. That could still be the case but at least today's CPI figures show some stability. The mild trend higher in prices was the result of a few factors moving in opposing directions. Food and housing costs rose, but energy helped offset the increases elsewhere.

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